NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Weather Outlook for 05-20-2013 through 05-27-2013
[Last update at 11:20pm 05-20-2013]
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Click here latest severe weather warnings issued BY NWS Forecast Offices (NWSFOs)
Latest 0.5 degree radar data from
Central Texas-Granger WSR-88D
[reload page to update
Day-1 and Day-2 graphics have been
updated as of 12:45pm / Day-3 graphics are up to
date / Extended Outlook N/A =
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlooks for (left
to right) Day-1, Day-2, and Day-3
an image to view a larger graphic]
[For the SPC Day-4 through 8 outlook graphic, click
Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation
Amount Forecasts) for the next seven days (168 hours)
Latest Surface Analysis
[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]
Plotted Station Data
[Details can be found here.]
Data and Analyses
Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
displays precipitable water (PWAT) from upper air soundings
made around 7am CDT. The table shows the seven
stations in or near Central Texas that make these
observations. I have added two additional stations, Slidell,
LA, and Jackson, MS to see if there is value added to
the table as we go into summer and flow aloft over Central
Texas becomes more easterly. (In other words, if we can
track increases in PWAT approaching from the east which can
occasionally lead to summer rainfall in Central Texas. The
table includes not only today's data, but also the most
recent four days.
PWAT is in inches.
Latest upper air
|Today - 05/20/2013
|Sunday - 05/19/2013
|Saturday - 05/18/2013
|Friday - 05/17/2013
|Thursday - 05/16/2013
ANALYSES COMPLETE /
850mb mixing ratio analysis
850mb height analysis
500mb Absolute Vorticity]
250mb isotach analysis]
300mb divergence analysis]
[I have made
some changes to the upper air products. I am providing three
separate graphics at 850mb, showing heights, temperatures, and
mixing ratio. Mixing ratio is a good representation of how
much moisture is located at the 850mb level. Temperatures
are reported and displayed in degrees C. The upper
air height analyses at 850, 700 and 500 millibars are
"constant pressure" analyses. The main contours on the maps
represent the height (in decameters) above mean sea level at
which the stated pressure is found. The pressure is reported
and analyzed in millibars (the units are identical to
hectopascals). On a few maps, you may see dark gray contour
lines. I use the dark gray to identify non-standard levels of
height analysis, and only when the non-standard layer aids in
identification of potentially important features missed by the
standard analysis levels. On the 250 mb analysis, color-fill
is used to display objectively-analyzed areas of stronger wind
speeds. As of 29 Nov. 2012, I have added two
objectively-analyzed maps: (a) 500mb Absolute Vorticity and
(b) 1000-500mb Thickness.]
|Monday, May 20th
||98 (1922)/48 (1981)
||95 (1996)/49 (2002)
||101 (2008)/53 (1926)
||100 (1996)/49 (2002)
||95 (1933)/53 (1981)
|Tuesday, May 21st
||99 (2005)/51 (1947)
||99 (2005)/52 (2002)
|| 99 (1939)/52 (1960)
||98 (1939)/52 (1892)
||96 (2005)/50 (2002)
|Wednesday, May 22nd
|99 (2005)/51 (1931)
|98 (1996)/47 (2001)
|100 (2008)/50 (1913)
|100 (1989)/50 (1892)
|96 (2001)/53 (2001)
Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred)
then record low temperature (year occurred).
Prediction Center Outlooks
6 to 10
8 to 14 Day Period
[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products
are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are
purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday.
Thus, the weekend outlooks may be less reliable than those
issued Monday through Friday.]
Week's Lake Levels
Friday, May 180th]
Latest single frame
image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at
time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time
(UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example,
1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next
Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]
here for the latest VAD Wind Profile from this radar
here for the same product from the radar at Fort
Worth or from the radar at
Latest Nexrad radar composite for
Texas and nearby states.
two preceding images are used with the permission of Paul
Satellite View of Central Texas
Close-up visible satellite view of
our part of Texas. Since it is a visible image, it
requires sunlight, so this product will only show clouds
during daylight hours. This product is generated by
my friend Gilbert Sebenste at Northern Illinois University,
and is used with his permission.
Texas Tornado History-May 16-31
On May 16, 1953, a tornado developed in Leon County
near Jewitt. The tornado moved from five miles southwest of
Jewitt to near Centerville. It produced damage rated F2,
with three injuries but no deaths. The tornado had a maximum
path width of 150 yards and a path length of 12 miles.
On May 17, 1939, a tornado developed near Hewitt in McLennan
County. Damaged was rated F2. There were three injuries and
one death which occurred when one house was destroyed. Wind
and hail caused over $1 million in damage across Central
Texas on this day.
On May 17, 1989, a tornado developed 3 miles south-southwest
of Jarrell in Williamson County. The tornado moved to the
northeast right up IH-35 through Jarrell. Many homes were
damaged or destroyed. Damage was rated F3. There were 28
injuries and one death. The maximum path width was 1,500
yards but the path length was less than five miles.
On May 18, 1902, a tornado developed near Ben Hur in
Limestone County and moved through the Shiloh community to
Fairfield in Freestone County. Twelve people were injured
and three were killed. The deaths occurred in the Ben Hur
community. Thirty homes were damaged or destroyed in
Fairfield, and the county courthouse was one of the
buildings damaged. The path width of this tornado is not
recorded but the path length was 40 miles.
On this same day, not truly in Central Texas but not too far
removed, a violent tornado struck Goliad in Goliad County,
southeast of San Antonio between Victoria and Beeville.
Damage was rated F4. The tornado caused 114 deaths and at
least 250 injuries. The maximum path width was 250 yards,
and the path length was 15 miles. It was reported that
many of the deaths occurred days after the tornado event as
people who were injured died of their wounds.
On May 18, 1935, a tornado developed at Caldwell in
Burleson County. Fifteen homes were damaged but there were
no reported injuries or deaths. Damage was rated F2. The
maximum path width was 100 yards and the path length was two
That same day, a tornado developed a Hearne in Robertson
County. Damage was rated F2. There were eight people injured
but no deaths. Eight homes were destroyed and thirty were
damaged. The maximum path width was 200 yards and the path
length was six miles. It is possible that the same
thunderstorm that produced the Caldwell tornado also
produced the Hearne tornado.
That same day, a tornado developed in Freestone County four
miles east of Fairfield. Several homes were damaged or
destroyed. The damage wasd rated F2. One person was
injured. The maximum path width was 70 yards and the path
length was fifteen miles. Numerous tornadoes occurred
outside of Central Texas later the same day.
On May 18, 1966, a tornado developed near Florence in
Williamson County. Damage was rated F2. There were no
injuries or deaths.
On May 22, 1938, a tornado developed at the New Hope
community in Comanche County. It was reported that a dozen
buildings were destroyed. Damage was rated F2. There were no
injuries or deaths.
On May 22, 1957, a tornado developed near Malone in Hill
County. Damage was rated F3. There were four injuries but no
deaths. The maximum path width was 150 yards and the path
length was four miles.
On May 23, 1971, a tornado developed near Whitney in Hill
County and moved toward the southeast. Damage was rated F2.
There were no injuries or deaths. This tornado was followed
by a second, stronger tornado.
That same day, as the first tornado near Whitney dissipated,
a second tornado developed 1/2 mile east of the dissipating
tornado. This multi-vortex tornado produced damage rated F2
and caused one death and 49 injuries.
On May 23, 1973, a tornado developed on the northwest side
of Temple in Bell County. The maximum path width was 150
yards and the path length was three miles. More than thirty
trailers at a manufacturing plant were damaged or destroyed.
Several commercial buildings and many homes suffered roof
damage as the tornado moved toward the southeast. Damage was
rated F2. There were no injuries or deaths.
On May 24, 1946, a tornado developed in Williamson County
west of Granger, and then moved to the southeast. The damage
was rated F4. There was one death and one injury.
On May 25, 1907, a tornado struck near the Field Creek
community in Mason and San Saba counties. Damage was rated
F4. There were three deaths and ten other people were
On May 25, 1976, a tornado developed two miles north of
Hillsboro. Damage was rated F2. There were no casualities.
On May 25, 1976, a tornado developed at Lake Victory in
Burnet County. Damage was rated F2. There were no
On May 26, 1924, a tornado developed east of Hubbard in Hill
County. Damage was rated F2. There were bo casualties.
On May 26, 1976, a long-tracked tornado developed in Johnson
County near Grandview, then moved southeast across the
Itasca area in Hill County to near Italy in Ellis County.
Damage was rated F3. There were no casualties.
That same day, a tornado developed west of the Westcliff
area on Lake Belton in Bell County, and moved to the
east-southeast. Damage was rated F3, and there were two
deaths and seven injuries.
That same day, a tornado developed northeast of Burnet in
Burnet County. Damage was rated F2, and there were no
On May 27, 1997, an outbreak of significant tornadoes
occurred across Central Texas as a slow-moving supercell
moved north-northeast to south-southwest along and just west
About 1:20pm, a tornado developed west of Lorena in McLennan
County. The tornado had a path width of 75 yards, a path
length of two miles, and moved very slowly to the
west-southwest. There were no casualities.
Shortly before 2pm, a tornado developed one mile east of
Moody in McLennan County. This tornado moved toward the
south-southwest very slowly. The path width was 150 yards
and the path length was almost four miles. The tornado
dissipated in northern Bell County. Damage was rated F3.
There were no casualities.
A short time later, a tornado developed in Bell County at
Morgans Point Resort. This tornado produced F3 damage as it
destroyed the Morgans Point Resort marina, including
hundreds of boats. After crossing an arm of Lake Belton, the
tornado heavily damage several homes north of FM-2305 before
dissipating. The path width was 250 yards but the path
length was less than three miles.
A short time later, a tornado developed northwest of Prairie
Dell in southern Bell County. A mobile home and a barn were
destroyed. Damage was rated F2, but there were no injuries
or deaths. The path length was 2.4 miles and the maximum
path width was 75 yards. This tornado transitioned into the
Jarrell tornado (next).
As the Prairie Dell tornado transitioned from the earlier
tornado at Prairie Dell, a multi-vortex tornado developed
which subsequently transitioned into a wedge tornado. This
tornado did not strike the town of Jarrell directly, but
leveled a subdivision (Double Creek Estates) that was just
west of the town. This tornado killed 27 people, injured 12
others, and produced F5 damage over a path that was (at
maximum) 650 yards wide, with a path length of over five
miles. As the tornado intensified prior to reaching Double
Creek Estates, it was strong enough to remove sod and
topsoil from land in its path, and to remove asphalt paving
as it neared Double Creek Estates. This tornado lofted
several automobiles and deposited them more than 1.5 miles
from where they had been before the storm. Virtually all air
conditioners, oven ranges, hot water heaters, and
refrigerators were carried away by the tornado.
That same day, a short time later, a tornado developed
four miles north of Cedar Park in Williamson County. The
tornado moved across the town of Cedar Park, crossing US-183
near an Albertson's supermarket. The tornado overturned a
railroad locomotive tender that weighed at least 65,000
pounds, then ripped open the roof of the Albertson's store.
The tornado continued moving south-southwest on the west
side of US-183 and dissipated as it approached the
Williamson-Travis county line. The tornado path length was
5.6 miles, the maximum path width was 200 yards, and damage
was rated F3. There were 15 people injured but no deaths.
That same day, within a few minutes of the dissipation of
the previous tornado, another tornado developed in northwest
Travis County at a location described in official reports as
7 miles northwest of Four Points. This tornado had a path
length of 3.6 miles and a maximum path width of 100 yards.
There were no casualties. The tornado dissipated 4 miles
northwest of Four Points.
That same day, a tornado developed one mile west of Lakeway
in Travis County. The tornado moved toward the
south-southwest and then turned toward the southwest, with a
path length of 5.6 miles. The tornado dissipated three miles
northwest of Beecaves. The maximum path width was 440 yards,
and damage was rated F4. One person was killed and five were
Shortly after midnight on May 30, 1909, a tornado developed
at Zephyr in Brown County. The historical record is not
entirely clear as to how wide the tornado path was, some
records showing 50 yards and others 500 yards. The true path
width is probably somewhere between those numbers. A
total of 46 homes, six businesses, two churches and the high
school were either damaged or destroyed. The damage rating
was set at F4. The lumber yard caught fire and burned
for several days. The path length is listed at three miles
but almost certainly extended longer than that into
relatively unpopulated rural countryside. Thirty-four people
died and at least 70 were injured. Most of the deaths
occurred in residential areas on the south and east sides of
On May 30, 1971, a tornado developed in rural McCulloch
County nine miles west-southwest of Brady. The tornado had a
path width of 200 yards and a path length over over three
miles. The damag was rathed F2, but there were no injuries
On May 30, 1976, a tornado again developed in McCulloch
County 7.5 miles northwest of Brady. This strong tornado
produced F3 damage with a path width of 500 yards and a path
length of 3.6 miles. There were no deaths or injuries.
On May 31, 1976, a tornado developed near Huckabay in Erath
County northwest of Stephenville. The tornado has a narrow
33-yard path width but a path length of 4.4 miles. Damage
was rated F2, but there were no deaths or injuries.
Each day I will provide
information if significant
tornadoes (that is, with damage rated F2
or greater) have occurred on that given date
in the past. This history will be for Central Texas,
roughly bounded on the north by Weatherford, Fort
Worth and Dallas, on the east by Corsicana and
Centerville, on the southeast by College Station, on
the south by San Antonio, on the southwest by
Junction, and on the northwest by Brownwood. Click
here for a map showing counties covered.
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar
(GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On
each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD
Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page,
you can also select other products from the GRK radar only.
All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka
at the College of DuPage.
>>>For GRK and radars west through
north, click this link.
>>>For GRK and radars southeast through
southwest, click this link.
If you need a refresher on the significance of
severe storm forecast parameters, click here
When I am unable to get updates posted, please
refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links
below) and to the Hazardous
Weather Outlook product issued by
Fort Worth and other NWS offices.
Storm Warnings and Forecasts
and Advisories for Texas
Center Discussion for Localized Threats (MCD)
Center Outlooks (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3 and Experimental
Center Severe Storm and Tornado Watches
by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes
produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and
hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest)
of mine for years. After working through several iterations of
the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S.
journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific
publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer
review process. My manuscript has now been published in the
April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here
is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe
This page was last
updated on 02-09-2013.
of Severe Storm Parameters
Have you ever wondered
how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to
forecast severe storms, check out this section
in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and
parameters used in forecasting severe storms.
Severe Storms in
Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and
nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central
Other Related Links
Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own
Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas
Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES
Highway Overpasses are not tornado shelters! Click here to
find out why.
Back to my
to my section on storm and nature photography
And perhaps you'd like to
know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture
conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable
link to the Climate Prediction
Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index
(Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're
looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite
image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But
if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from
NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC,
Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable
If you have
comments or suggestions, email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
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