Weather Data, Forecasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook for 9/03/2015 through 09/10/2015
Last update at 8:35am 09-03-
2015
When this page is not being updated, you need another resource ... [click here]

Audio Forecast Discussion =not today
Graphics for Thursday, Sept. 3rd:
                                                                                                                  
[Some of the graphics used for the audio forecast discussion may be from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model generated and distributed by the Texas Tech Atmospheric Science Department at Lubbock, Texas]


  For the latest weather radar images from all radar sites in Texas, as well as portions of Oklahoma and Louisiana ... Click here ...
Skycams from around Texas - [click here]

Use the Links Below to Access Latest Severe Weather Warnings and Other NWS Products
Some links below use abbreviations to identify the type of product: TOR=Tornado Warning; SVR=Severe Thunderstorm Warning; SWS=Special Weather Statement

FROM NWSFO FORT WORTH-DALLAS:

Latest warning products .... [TOR] [SVR] [SWS]   Hourly Surface Observations  Hazardous Weather Outlook
=0=
FROM NWSFO AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO:
Latest warning products .... [TOR] [SVR] [SWS]   Hourly Surface Observations  Hazardous Weather Outlook
=0=
FROM NWSFO SAN ANGELO:
Latest warning products .... [TOR] [SVR] [SWS]    Hourly Surface Observations  Hazardous Weather Outlook
=0=
FROM NWSFO HOUSTON-GALVESTON:
Latest warning products .....: [TOR] [SVR] [SWSHourly Surface Observations1  Hazardous Weather Outlook

1NWSFO Austin-San Antonio issues a combined product including stations in the Houston-Galveston CWA

You can follow me on Twitter @Centxwx
Tropical Weather Summary
Tropical Storm Fred is over open waters of the Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands forecast to weaken to a depression by tomorrow ... no threat to land ...
Tropical Storm Kevin is well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving slowly northward ...
Typhoon Kilo is 200 miles southwest of Midway Island moving west ... no threat to land ...
Hurricane Igancio is over open waters north-northwest of Hawaii moving northwest ... no threat to land ...
Hurricane Jimena is over open waters far east of Hawaii moving north-northwest ... no threat to land ...

Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page with graphics on all storms


Links to sections on this page:
[Special Events] [Forecast Discussion] [Weather History] [Storm Prediction Center Outlooks] [NWS forecasts, observations, outlooks, etc.] [Local Climate Statistics]
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]

(Daily Record High/Low Temperatures now included in Local Climate Statistics below)


Special Weather or Climate Issues

If you lived in Central Texas in early September, 2000 then you probably will remember the extreme heat of that Labor Day weekend. Temperatures soared as an upper air anticyclone parked itself over Central Texas. On September 4th, the heat peaked as both Dallas and Waco recorded highs of 111 F. It will be hot this Labor Day weekend, but nowhere near as hot as in 2000. And the medium-range forecast models are showing a pattern change that will bring milder weather and better rain chances in about a week.

Forecast Discussion 

RIdging aloft will increase over at least the northern half of Central Texas through the weekend, effectively shutting down rain chances for much of the area. There may be some coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading inland this afternoon and Friday afternoon, but for most areas, it will be clear to partly cloudy and seasonably hot, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.

Latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the NWS Storm Prediction Center



Graphics above are as follows (l-r):  Day-1 SPC Tornado Probability Outlook, Day-1 SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook, Day-2 SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook, and SPC Day-3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.
[Extended Outlook for Days 4-8 will only be displayed if one or more days have areas with identifiable risk.]

SPC Day-1, Day-2, Day-3 Categorical Outlooks for the entire continental U.S. from the College of DuPage NEXLAB

Links to official Nat'l. Weather Service observations, outlooks and forecasts

Latest hourly surface observations from weather stations in or near Central Texas:
North Central and Northwestern Texas [click here] / South Central, Southeastern, and South Texas [click here] / West Central Texas and the Big Country [click here]

Latest Hazardous Weather Outlooks from NWSFOs with responsibility for one or more Central Texas county:

[Fort Worth-Dallas] [Austin-San Antonio] [Houston-Galveston] [San Angelo]

Latest Forecasts from NWS Forecast Offices responsible for Central Texas counties:
[Fort Worth-Dallas] / [Austin-San Antonio] / [Houston-Galveston] / [San Angelo]


Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Today, Sept. 3rd
109 2000//60 1974
108 2000//59 1987
108 2000//59 1974
104 2000//61 1974
109 2000//60 1919
Normals for today
High 93//Low 72
High 94//Low 71
High 94//Low 73
High 94//Low 73
High 94//Low 73
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 10-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

Station
10-Day Average d/n
9/02 9/01
8/31
8/30
8/29
8/28
8/27
8/26
8/25
8/24
DFW Int'l. Airport
+1.6
+01
+02
+02
+02
+03
+01
+01
-01
+01
+04
Waco Regional Airport
+0.3
+01
-0-
-0-
-02
+02
-01
-02
-0-
+01
+04
Austin-City
+1.0
-01
-0-
+02
+01
-02
-0-
+01
+01
+04
+04
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
+1.6
+01
+01
+02
+01
+01
-0-
+02
+01
+04
+03
College Station Airport
-2.0
-04
-03
-02
-02
-03
-03
-04
-02
-0-
+03
The table above covers the past ten days and shows the daily mean departure from normal of temperatures (d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for each of the ten days, adding those up, then dividing the sum by 10.

Precipitation Records

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Precipitation (inches)
4.30
0.66
3.03
3.18
9.01"
9.35"
0.05
0.65"
0



Cumulative precipitation for 2015
4.30
4.96
7.99
11.17
20.18
29.53"
29.58" 30.59"



This table presents precipitation data at my home located 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple (also, 3 miles north of downtown Belton). I participate in CoCoRaHS (learn more about the organization - click here) and my numerical identifier is TX-BEL-28. In 2014, I recorded 29.52 inches of precipitation. That's a little below normal. The first four months of 2014 (January through April) were exceptionally dry, with only 4.06 inches of precipitation. The next four months (May through August) were exceptionally wet, with 16.81 inches of rainfall. The final four months (September through December) were close to normal, at 8.72 inches.


Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data is delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center


[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]


WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
           

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
   
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
Station Name
8/29/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
8/30/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
8/31/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
9/01/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
9/02/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
9/02/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
STN ID
Brownsville
1.05
19
18
13
1.57
22
18
09
2.16
22
18
09
2.01
22
19
07
1.97
23
18
09
1.95
22
19
09
BRO
C-Christi
0.91
20
20
10
1.28
22
15
09
170
23
18
09
2.10
21
17
08
1.85
21
17
09
1.97
22
18
09
CRP
Del Rio
1.04
21
19
10
1.41
21
20
09
1.59
22
19
08
1.23
20
20
09
1.35
20
18
10
1.35
22
19
10
DRT
Fort Worth
1.65
26
21
09
1.47
24
20
07
1.59
22
19
08
1.40
23
18
08
1.28
22
19
08
1.42
23
18
09
FWD
Midland 1.43
&
20
09
1.08
&
21
08
0.79
&
22
08
0.76
&
22
13
0.86
&
21
13
0.99
&
21
13
MAF
El Paso
1.22
&
23
12
1.05
&
24
11
0.69
&
25
12
0.82
&
26
14
1.02
&
26
13
1.19
&
24
12
EPZ
Albuquerq'
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.97
&
&
12
1.07
&
&
12
0.97
&
&
11
ABQ
Amarillo
1.06
&
23
10
0.61
&
21
11
0.55
&
24
13
1.00
&
23
13
1.16
&
24
13
1.06
&
24
13
AMA
Norman
1.35
27
22
09
1.12
24
18
10
1.14
26
21
07
1.15
22
19
07
1.05
23
19
11
1.21
24
20
12
OUN
Little Rock
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.47
25
18
06
1.61
23
17
06
1.52
22
19
08
LZK
Shreveport 1.29
22
17
09
1.52
23
17
07
1.50
22
17
08
1.72
22
17
08
1.77
22
16
07
1.59
22
17
08
SHV
Lk. Charles 1.07
21
15
10
1.37
20
15
10
1.42
21
17
09
2.11
21
18
08
1.93
23
17
07
2.22
21
17
09
LCH
 [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M = Missing, no report received / D = Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]
Effective 9/1/2015, seasonal station change: ABQ and LIT added, SIL and JAN deleted.
This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 925mb, 850mb and 700mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (7pm CDT and 7am CDT).  The table shows 12 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. The table will include not only today's data,but also the previous four days, with the most recent data on the RIGHT. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and all temperatures are in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -0.5 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .]

  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES COMPLETE

[Note: I have made a change in the 925mb, 850mb, 700mb and 500mb wind analysis products. At least through the remainder of the summer and into fall, I will be using wind speed vector analysis in place of wind streamline analysis. To understand this type of analysis, you need to know that the length of the arrow is used to show the relative wind velocity and the direction of the arrow shows the direction toward which the wind is blowing.]
925mb: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Wind Vector analysis

850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Wind Vector analysis

700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >Wind Vector analysis
 
 500mb:
>Relative Humidity  >Balanced height analysis  >Isotach analysis >Absolute Vorticity 
Wind Vector analysis

300mb:
Isotach analysis  Divergence analysis ]
 
250mb:
>Isotach analysis
==0==
MANDATORY LEVELS: By international convention, these specific pressure levels must be reported in the RAOB message: the surface, 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 70, 50, and 10 mb.. The information for some of these levels is plotted routinely on constant pressure charts to show the spatial variability of these levels and it is used as input in the numerical weather prediction models.

The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here




Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

September
Temperature     Precipitation

September-October-November

Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated Sept. 3rd]


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]
(The preceding image used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)




Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?




Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

  Highway Overpasses are not tornado shelters! Click here to find out why.

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 06-29-2015.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

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