Weather Data, Forecasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook for 7/28/2015 through 08/04/2015
Last update at 9:42am 07-28-
2015
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I will be adding a few additional photos from my recent trip to Austria later today. These will be from a day trip to Venice, Italy.

  Click here for the latest severe weather warnings ...
Skycams from around Texas - [click here]

Use the Links Below to Access Latest Severe Weather Warnings and Other NWS Products
Some links below use abbreviations to identify the type of product: TOR=Tornado Warning; SVR=Severe Thunderstorm Warning; SWS=Special Weather Statement

FROM NWSFO FORT WORTH-DALLAS:

Latest warning products .... [TOR] [SVR] [SWS]   Hourly Surface Observations  Hazardous Weather Outlook
 
FROM NWSFO AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO:
Latest warning products .... [TOR] [SVR] [SWS]   Hourly Surface Observations  Hazardous Weather Outlook

FROM NWSFO SAN ANGELO:
Latest warning products .... [TOR] [SVR] [SWS]    Hourly Surface Observations  Hazardous Weather Outlook

FROM NWSFO HOUSTON-GALVESTON:
Latest warning products .....: [TOR] [SVR] [SWSHourly Surface Observations1  Hazardous Weather Outlook

1NWSFO Austin-San Antonio issues a combined product including stations in the Houston-Galveston CWA

You can follow me on Twitter @Centxwx
 
click here for the latest severe weather warnings ...

Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page


Links to sections on this page:
[Special Events] [Forecast Discussion] [Weather History] [Storm Prediction Center Outlooks] [NWS forecasts, observations, outlooks, etc.] [Local Climate Statistics]
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]

(Daily Record High/Low Temperatures now included in Local Climate Statistics below)


Special Weather or Climate Issues
A Strong El Nio with a "Twist"


The graphic above (provided by NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory) shows recent departure from normal ocean water temperatures using color to aid in visualization. The darkest red hues are 5 degrees Celsius or more above normal, while the darkest blue hues are 5 degrees Celsius or more below normal. (Celsius can be converted to Fahrenheit as follows: Multiply the temperature in C by 1.8 and add 32 degrees) The broad area of red hues (approximately along the Equator) is a classic strong El Nio. The "twist" referred to in the title above is that this El Nio is coinciding with the occurrence of a warm episode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO is a multi-decadal oscillation that occurs independent of the status of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). So, the warmer than normal waters seen from California northward to southern Alaska are the result of the PDO, not the El Nio. [Here is a link to the NOAA webpage from which the image above was obtained.]

T
he latest information from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a strong El Nio event to continue through the upcoming winter months (with near 100% agreement from the climate models), and possibly into next Spring. As is typical, El Ni
o events have very little impact on most of Texas, so our hot, dry weather pattern is likely to persist into August, maybe even into September. Beyond early fall, a resumption of higher than normal precipitation chances is expected. Our current very dry weather pattern is quite typical of summertime in Central Texas. The one-month period from mid-July to mid-August is (on average) the driest 30-day period of the year.

Forecast Discussion

A batch of very warm, moist air near the surface is moving inland from the Texas coast and adjacent areas of the western Gulf of Mexico this morning. Dewpoint temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees have reached as far inland as La Grange and College Station, and with a south-southeasterly low-level flow, very humid conditions will continue spreading inland through early afternoon. There should be some erosion of the highest dewpoints due to low-level mixing with peak afternoon heating, but the very humid air will contribute to oppressive heat index values that may approach 110 degrees in some areas. Anyone engaged in vigorous outdoor activity should make every effort to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade to avoid heat-related illnesses. 

Latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the NWS Storm Prediction Center


Graphics above are as follows (l-r):  Day-1 SPC Tornado Probability Outlook, Day-1 SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook, Day-2 SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook, and SPC Day-3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.
[Extended Outlook for Days 4-8 will only be displayed if one or more days have areas with identifiable risk.]

SPC Day-1, Day-2, Day-3 Categorical Outlooks for the entire continental U.S. from the College of DuPage NEXLAB

Links to official Nat'l. Weather Service observations, outlooks and forecasts

Latest hourly surface observations from weather stations in or near Central Texas:
North Central and Northwestern Texas [click here] / South Central, Southeastern, and South Texas [click here] / West Central Texas and the Big Country [click here]

Latest Hazardous Weather Outlooks from NWSFOs with responsibility for one or more Central Texas county:

[Fort Worth-Dallas] [Austin-San Antonio] [Houston-Galveston] [San Angelo]

Latest Forecasts from NWS Forecast Offices responsible for Central Texas counties:
[Fort Worth-Dallas] / [Austin-San Antonio] / [Houston-Galveston] / [San Angelo]


Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Today, July 28th
105 2008//66 1994
106 1969//60 1994
105 1923//68 1916
103 1995//67 1903
105 1995//64 1994
Normals for today
High 97//Low 76
High 98//Low 75
High 97//Low 75
High 96//Low 75
High 96//Low 75
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 10-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

Station
10-Day Average d/n
7/27
7/26
7/25
7/24
7/23
7/22
7/21
7/20
7/19
7/18
DFW Int'l. Airport
+03
+03
+03
+03
+03
+04
+03
+02
+03
+03
+03
Waco Regional Airport
+01
+03
+01
+02
+01
+02
+01
+01
-0-
-0-
+01
Austin-City
+02
+03
+01
+01
+02
+02
+02
+01
+01
+02
+03
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
+02
+04
+02
+01
+03
+03
+03
+01
+02
+02
+03
College Station Airport
+01
+02
+01
+01
+01
+01
+02
+01
+01
-0-
+01
+01+01
The table above covers the past eight days and shows the daily mean departure from normal of temperatures (d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for each of the eight days, adding those up, then dividing the sum by 8.

Precipitation Records

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Precipitation (inches)
4.30
0.66
3.03
3.18
9.01"
9.35"
0.05





Cumulative precipitation for 2015
4.30
4.96
7.99
11.17
20.18
29.53"
29.58"




This table presents precipitation data at my home located 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple (also, 3 miles north of downtown Belton). I participate in CoCoRaHS (learn more about the organization - click here) and my numerical identifier is TX-BEL-28. In 2014, I recorded 29.52 inches of precipitation. That's a little below normal. The first four months of 2014 (January through April) were exceptionally dry, with only 4.06 inches of precipitation. The next four months (May through August) were exceptionally wet, with 16.81 inches of rainfall. The final four months (September through December) were close to normal, at 8.72 inches.


Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data is delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center


[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]


WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
           

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
   
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
Station
7/24/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
7/25/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
7/26/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
7/27/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
7/28/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
Brownsville
2.03
23
19
14
1.78
22
20
13
1.59
24
22
13
1.46
21
22
12
1.58
23
22
11
C-Christi
1.68
24
20
13
1.63
22
21
13
1.61
22
21
13
1.54
24
22
12
1.56
25
21
11
Del Rio
1.45
22
19
15
1.69
24
20
14
1.61
25
23
14
1.40
25
23
13
1.58
22
21
13
Fort Worth
1.67
27
23
13
1.40
26
21
12
1.21
26
24
12
1.46
26
24
11
1.50
26
21
13
Midland 1.33
&
24
14
1.00
&
23
15
1.17
&
24
14
1.27
&
25
14
1.27
&
25
14
El Paso
1.44
&
23
14
1.31
&
23
15
1.33
&
21
15
1.21
&
26
14
1.38
&
24
14
Amarillo
1.49
&
26
14
1.43
&
25
14
1.37
&
26
15
1.25
&
26
14
1.14
&
28
16
Norman
1.44
28
24
13
1.29
28
23
14
1.18
27
22
13
1.55
27
21
13
1.26
27
22
14
Shreveport 1.46
26
21
11
1.51
26
23
11
1.93
26
20
10
1.53
25
19
11
1.83
25
20
11
Lk. Charles 1.46
25
22
12
1.49
25
22
11
2.37
24
20
09
2.01
23
19
10
1.86
23
20
10
Jackson
2.06
25
19
09
1.66
26
20
10
1.40
25
18
12
1.69
24
20
09
1.78
25
20
09
Slidell
1.85
24
20
10
2.09
26
20
08
1.70
24
19
10
1.50
24
18
10
1.69
24
19
09
 [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M = Missing, no report received / D = Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]

This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 925mb, 850mb and 700mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (7pm CDT and 7am CDT).  The table shows 12 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. The table will include not only today's data,but also the previous
four days, with the most recent data on the RIGHT. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and all temperature is in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -05 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .]

  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES COMPLETE

[Note: I have made a change in the 925mb, 850mb, 700mb and 500mb wind analysis products. At least through the remainder of the summer and into fall, I will be using wind speed vector analysis in place of wind streamline analysis.]
925mb: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Wind Vector analysis

850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Wind Vector analysis

700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >Wind Vector analysis
 
 500mb:
>Relative Humidity  >Balanced height analysis  >Isotach analysis >Absolute Vorticity 
Wind Vector analysis

300mb:
Isotach analysis  Divergence analysis ]
 
250mb:
>Isotach analysis

200mb: >Isotach analysis

==0==
The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here



Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

August
Temperature     Precipitation

August-September-October

Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated July 24th]


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]
(The preceding image used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)




Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?



If you need a refresher on the significance of severe storm forecast parameters, click here .

When I am unable to get updates posted, please refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links below) and to the Hazardous Weather Outlook product issued by Fort Worth and other NWS offices.


Current Severe Storm Warnings and Forecasts

Current Warnings and Advisories for Texas

Storm Prediction Center Discussion for Localized Threats (MCD)

Storm Prediction Center Outlooks (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3 and Experimental Days 4-8)

Storm Prediction Center Severe Storm and Tornado Watches


Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

  Highway Overpasses are not tornado shelters! Click here to find out why.

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 06-29-2015.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

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