Weather Data, Foreasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook for 03/29/2015 through 04/05/2015
Last update at 3:44pm 03-29-2015
When this page is not being updated, you need another resource ... [click here]


Click here for: Skycams from around Texas

There are many different versions of what counties compose Central Texas. Click here for a map showing the counties I include in that term.



FROM NWSFO FORT WORTH-DALLAS:
Hourly observations for the northern half of Central Texas  [click here]
Hazardous Weather Outlook for the northern half of Central Texas [click here]
 
FROM NWSFO AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO:
Hourly observations for the southern half of Central Texas as well as southeastern and southern Texas [click here]
Hazardous Weather Outlook for the southern half of Central Texas [click here]

FROM NWSFO SAN ANGELO:
Hourly observations for west central Texas and the Big Country [click here]
Hazardous Weather Outlook for west central Texas and the Big Country [click here]


You can follow me on Twitter @Centxwx
 
click here for the latest severe weather warnings ...
Click here to visit my Severe Weather Page ...
Typhoon Maysak is intensifying in the western Pacific ... west of Chuuk now ... forecast to reach Category 4 (hurricane) intensity while passing south of Guam tomorrow and make a direct strike on Yap ...
Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page...


Links to sections on this page:
[Special Events] [Forecast Discussion] [Weather History] [Storm Prediction Center Outlooks] [NWS forecasts, observations, outlooks, etc.] [Local Climate Statistics]
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]

(Daily Record High/Low Temperatures now included in Local Climate Statistics below)


Special Weather or Climate Events

Typhoon Maysak is forecast to move west-northwest for the next couple of days while gradually intensifying, perhaps reach Category 4 intensity, before passing over or very close to Yap.

Yap is an island in the Caroline Islands of the western Pacific Ocean. It is considered to be made up of four separate islands: Yap Island proper, Tamil/Gagil, Maap and Rumung. The three are contiguous though separated by water and are surrounded by a common coral reef. They are formed from an uplift of the Philippine Sea Plate, and are referred to as "high" islands as opposed to atolls. The land is mostly rolling hills densely vegetated. Mangrove swamps line much of the shore. Yap's indigenous cultures and traditions are strong compared to other states in Micronesia.

Colonia is the capital of the State of Yap which includes Yap proper and the fourteen outer islands (mostly atolls) reaching to the east and south for some 500 mi. Historically a tributary system existed between the outer islands and Yap proper. This probably related to the need for goods from the high islands, including food, as well as wood for construction of seagoing vessels. [edited from Wikipedia]


Forecast Discussion

Surface analysis based on 3pm CDT data found a weak mesoscale low pressure center near Abilene, located long a quasi-stationary front that extends from east of Tulsa, OK to near Gainesville, TX, through the low near Abilene, then west-southwest to near Midland, TX and into extreme southern New Mexico. A dryline extends southwest from the low through San Angelo to between Del Rio and Dryden. This is the kind of set-up that would ordinarily lead to thunderstorms developing near the mesoscale low, and gradually populating the area southwest along the dryline, and northeast along the quasi-stationary front. Visible satellite imagery so far this afternoon does not show any cumulus development in those areas, and that is probably because the air returning northward from the Gulf of Mexico just isn't very moist (as was indicated by the 7am CDT upper air data). However, the 3pm CDT 2-km mesoscale analysis from the College of DuPage NeXt-Generation Weather Lab does show a modest theta-E maximum near the area immediately east of the meso-low and strong moisture convergence along the frontal zone from southwest of Abilene to near Wichita Falls, and also,  modest convergence southwest along the dryline.  I would have to say that all of the components for an outbreak of convective weather (showers and thunderstorms) are in place, but for the lack of a good return flow of moisture. The best low-level moisture is confined to southeastern Texas and Louisiana at this time. The Storm Prediction Center outlook for the remainder of today and tonight shows the possibility for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and tonight, north of a line from Ennis (Ellis County) to Shreveport, within general, non-severe thunderstorms north of a line from Stephenville to Corsicana to Monroe, LA. Whatever happens later today and tonight, tomorrow will bring a similar unsettled pattern for the southern plains, but with the two primary focii located well northeast and northwest of Central Texas. By Tuesday and Tuesday night, the threat of convection will begin impacting Central Texas, with a marginal severe risk northwest of a line from Laredo to San Saba to Dallas to Sulphur Springs, and general storms possible west and northwest of a line from McAllen to east of Georgetown to Lufkin. This pattern will continue into Wednesday. There may be a lull in stormy weather on Thursday, but another weather system could bring additional storms Thursday night into Friday. Stay tuned!

Latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Graphics above are as follows (l to r): Day-1 SPC Outlook, Day-2 SPC Outlook,  and Day-3 SPC Outlook. Additional graphics may be posted if SPC issues an extended product. Click on an image to see a larger version.

SPC Day-1, Day-2, Day-3 Categorical Outlooks for the entire continental U.S. from the College of DuPage NEXLAB


Links to official Nat'l. Weather Service observations, outlooks and forecasts

Latest hourly surface observations from weather stations in or near Central Texas:
North Central and Northwestern Texas [click here] / South Central, Southeastern, and South Texas [click here] / West Central Texas and the Big Country [click here]

Latest Hazardous Weather Outlooks from NWSFOs with responsibility for one or more Central Texas county:

[Fort Worth-Dallas] [Austin-San Antonio] [Houston-Galveston] [San Angelo]

Latest Forecasts from NWS Forecast Offices responsible for Central Texas counties:
[Fort Worth-Dallas] / [Austin-San Antonio] / [Houston-Galveston] / [San Angelo]


Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Today, Mar. 29th 88 1987//28 1944
94 1902//30 2009
91 2000//34 1987
94 2000//35 1987
88 1976//35 1975
Normals for today
High 72//Low 50
High 73//Low 50
High 76//Low 54
High 77//Low 54
High 75//Low 54
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 8-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

Station
8-Day Average d/n
3/28
3/27
3/26
3/25
3/24
3/23
3/22
3/21
DFW Int'l. Airport
+03
+02
-04
+01
+12
+11
+03
+02
-01
Waco Regional Airport
+01
+03
-05
-06
+10
+08
-0-
-0-
-03
Austin-City
+02
+01
-0-
-02
+09
+07
+02
+05
-05
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
+02
+02
-03
-04
+08
+08
+04
+04
-01
College Station Airport
+01 +02
-03
-05
+07
+06
+01
-01
-02

The table above covers the past eight days and shows the daily mean departure from normal of temperatures (d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for each of the eight days, adding those up, then dividing the sum by 8.

Precipitation Records
These records are from my location 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple (also, 3 miles north of downtown Belton). I participate in CoCoRahs (learn more about the organization - click here) and my CoCoRahs identifier is TX-BEL-28. In 2014, I recorded 29.52 inches of precipitation. That's a little below normal. The first four months of 2014 (January through April) were exceptionally dry, with only 4.06 inches of precipitation. The next four months (May through August) were exceptionally wet, with 16.81 inches of rainfall. The final four months (September through December) were close to normal, at 8.72 inches.

In early 2015, January precipitation was 4.30 inches, well above normal. In February, precipitation was 0.66 inches, well below normal. For the first two months of the year, the total was 4.96 inches, which is just above normal by 0.21 inch. (I am comparing to the NWS normal precipitation records for Waco, the closest station for which I have data.)


Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data is delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center


[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]

Key to Plotted Station Data
Animated Graphic - NOAA Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Surface Pressure and Fronts [click here]
Climate Prediction Center Weather Hazards Days 3-7 [click here]


WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
           

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
   
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
Station
03/29/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
03/28/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
03/27/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
03/26/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
03/25/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
Brownsville
0.53
20
17
06
0.46
16
15
04
0.47
13
09
04
1.50
19
18
09
1.10
22
19
09
C-Christi
0.53
19
17
05
0.38
17
15
03
0.29
13
09
03
1.42
19
17
08
0.78
19
16
08
Del Rio
0.55
19
21
08
0.42
18
18
05
0.29
14
11
02
0.98
10
12
05
0.76
16
19
08
Fort Worth
0.60
19
19
05
0.61
15
14
02
0.44
14
09
-01
0.73
05
07
03
0.92
19
18
05
Midland 0.26
&
24
09
0.32
&
19
07
0.28
&
12
04
0.51
&
01
-0
0.49
&
21
06
El Paso
0.18
&
21
09
0.20
&
19
07
0.27
&
14
06
0.42
&
09
03
0.26
&
19
04
Amarillo
0.25
&
21
09
0.40
&
19
06
0.32
&
12
01
0.15
&
01
-04
0.36
&
14
06
Albuquerq'
0.21
&
&
08
0.23
&
&
06
0.21
&
&
03
0.22
&
&
-03
0.28
&
&
03
Norman
0.43
16
09
07
0.62
12
15
02
0.57
11
05
-04
0.54
01
03
-05
0.76
17
17
05
Little Rock 0.62
07
11
02
0.58
02
+0
-06
0.36
04
-01
-09
1.02
14
10
+0
0.88
16
12
04
Shreveport 0.74
13
13
03
0.59
12
08
-01
0.35
08
07
-06
1.28
15
12
04
M



Lk. Charles 0.77
16
14
03
0.68
15
09
-01
0.31
08
08
-02
1.35
18
14
07
0.62
14
16
07
 [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M=Missing, no report received / D=Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]

This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 925mb, 850mb and 700mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (7pm CDT and 7am CDT).  The table shows 14 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. The table will include not only today's data,but also the previous
four days. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and all temperature is in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -05 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .]

  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSESCOMPLETE


925mb
: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Streamline analysis

850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Streamline analysis

700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >Streamline analysis
 
 500mb:
>Relative Humidity  >Balanced height analysis  >Isotach analysis >Absolute Vorticity

300mb:
Isotach analysis  Divergence analysis
 
250mb:
>Isotach analysis
 
==0==
The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here



Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

March
Temperature     Precipitation

March-April-May

Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated March 29th]


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]



Latest Nexrad radar composite for Texas and nearby states.
(The two preceding images are used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)

Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?



If you need a refresher on the significance of severe storm forecast parameters, click here .

When I am unable to get updates posted, please refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links below) and to the Hazardous Weather Outlook product issued by Fort Worth and other NWS offices.


Current Severe Storm Warnings and Forecasts

Current Warnings and Advisories for Texas

Storm Prediction Center Discussion for Localized Threats (MCD)

Storm Prediction Center Outlooks (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3 and Experimental Days 4-8)

Storm Prediction Center Severe Storm and Tornado Watches


Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

  Highway Overpasses are not tornado shelters! Click here to find out why.

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 08-18-2014.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

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