Weather Data, Forecasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook fo
r 1-23-2015 through 01-31-2015
Last update at 8:25am 1-24-2015

When this page is not being updated, you need another resource ... [click here]

Click here for: Skycams from around (mainly Central) Texas


Hourly observations for the northern half of Central Texas  [click here]
Hourly observations for the southern half of Central Texas as well as southeastern and southern Texas [click here]
Hourly observations for the west central Texas and the Big Country [click here]


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click here for the latest severe weather warnings ...
Click here to visit my Severe Weather Page ...
The remnant of Tropical Cyclone Niko is moving into colder waters and JTWC has issued the final warning ...
 
  Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page ...

Links to sections on this page:
[Special Events] [Forecast Discussion] [Weather History] [Storm Prediction Center Outlooks] [NWS forecasts, observations, outlooks, etc.] [Local Climate Statistics]
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]

(Daily Record High/Low Temperatures now included in Local Climate Statistics below)

Special Weather or Climate Events

...pending...

Forecast Discussion

Latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center forecast map valid at 6am CST next Saturday (January 31)

Will Mother Nature Throw Us A 'Sucker Punch'?
Unusually pleasant weather for late January will prevail across Central Texas for the next four to six days (through Thursday, Jan. 29th). A strong ridge aloft developing over the southern plains of the U.S. is predicted by all mid-range computer models, and that will insure plenty of sunshine with cool nights and warm (for late January) afternoons. No precipitation is expected. It will seem like early springtime. But wait ... it isn't even February yet, and we've seen some pretty nasty winter weather in February and even in March, and don't forget the Easter snowstorm of April 7-8, 2007! So, after almost a week of nice weather (through next Thursday), we may see a significant blast of arctic air by next weekend (the timing is still uncertain), and to complicate matters, the computer models are bringing another upper air storm system out of the Pacific west of Baja California toward Texas at about the same time (next weekend). If enough cold air is in place, we could see a 'doozy' of a winter storm in parts of Texas around the first of February. Stay tuned!


Latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Graphics above are as follows (l to r): Day-1 SPC Outlook, Day-2 SPC Outlook,  and Day-3 SPC Outlook. Click on an image to see a larger version.

SPC Day-1, Day-2, Day-3 Categorical Outlooks for the entire continental U.S. from the College of DuPage NEXLAB

Links to official Nat'l. Weather Service observations, outlooks and forecasts

Latest hourly surface observations from weather stations in or near Central Texas:
North Central and Northwestern Texas [click here] / South Central, Southeastern, and South Texas [click here] / West Central Texas and the Big Country [click here]

Latest Hazardous Weather Outlooks from NWSFOs with responsibility for one or more Central Texas county:

[Fort Worth-Dallas] [Austin-San Antonio] [Houston-Galveston] [San Angelo]

Latest Forecasts from NWS Forecast Offices responsible for Central Texas counties:
[Fort Worth-Dallas] / [Austin-San Antonio] / [Houston-Galveston] / [San Angelo]


Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Saturday, Jan. 24th 82 1943//+9 1963
83 2013//11 1963
81 2013//12 1963
85 1071//15 1963
84 1943//15 1963
Normals for today
High 57//Low 36
High 59//Low 36
High 62//Low 42
High 63//Low 41
High 61//Low 41
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 7-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

Station
7-Day Average d/n
1/23
1/22
1/21
1/20
1/19
1/18
1/17
DFW Int'l. Airport
+05
-05
-04
+05
+09
+08
+06
+08
Waco Regional Airport
+02
-05
-02
+03
+01
+06
+02
+08
Austin-City
+02
-07
-05
+01
+09
+04
+07
+03
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
+02
-09
-01
+04
+10
+03
+04
+03
College Station Airport
+01
-09
-03
+05
+10
+03
+03
+01

The table above covers the past seven days and shows the daily mean departures from normal of temperatures (d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for each of the five days, adding those, then dividing the sum by 7.

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data is delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center


[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]

Key to Plotted Station Data
Animated Graphic - NOAA Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Surface Pressure and Fronts [click here]
Climate Prediction Center Weather Hazards Days 3-7 [click here]


WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
           

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
   
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
Station
01/24/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
01/23/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
01/22/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
01/21/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
01/20/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
Brownsville
0.35
06
03
04
1.09
02
08
03
1.75
17
14
07
0.89
20
17
07
0.64
19
16
07
C. Christi
0.34
06
03
01
0.95
02
06
01
1.75
16
12
04
0.83
20
15
05
0.50
19
15
06
Del Rio
0.23
07
04
01
0.60
0
-03
-07
1.14
06
07
01
0.62
11
16
04
0.40
21
17
06
Fort Worth
0.13 09
05
-01
0.50
01
-04
-08
0.88
02
-01
-01
0.48
09
06
-02
0.47
15
13
02
Midland 0.32
&
05
-01
0.40
-01
-03
-11
0.59
&
04
-04
0.46
&
05
0
0.36
&
18
04
El Paso
0.20
&
03
-01
0.20
&
-03
-09
0.48
&
04
-04
0.40
&
10
02
0.29
&
14
04
Amarillo
0.35
&
02
-03
0.24
&
-04
-09
0.37
&
-05
-12
0.95
&
02
-01
0.37
&
07
01
Albuquerq'
0.26
&
-03
-02
0.16
&
-06
-08
0.23
&
&
-12
0.38
&
&
-05
0.28
&
&
-01
Norman
0.38
06
06
-04
0.32
0
-03
-10
0.59
-01
-03
-09
0.37
07
03
-07
0.45
13
09
-01
Little Rock 0.24
04
02
-05
0.64
-01
-04
-04
0.73
0
-02
-06
0.31
07
02
-06
0.48
12
09
-01
Shreveport 0.24
04
02
-02
0.81
-0
01
-03
0.89
07
02
-01
0.55
08
06
-01
0.69
13
09
0
Lk. Charles 0.27
03
03
-02
1.06
03
13
-01
1.23
12
10
01
0.87
12
08
02
0.76
12
10
03
 [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M=Missing, no report received / D=Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]
This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 850mb and 700mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (7pm CDT and 7am CDT).  The table shows 14 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. The table will include not only today's data, but also the four previous days. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and 850mb temperature is in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -05 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .
]

  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES COMPLETE
925mb: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Streamline analysis

850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Streamline analysis

700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >Streamline analysis
 
 500mb:
>Relative Humidity  >Balanced height analysis  >Streamline analysis >Absolute Vorticity

300mb:
Streamline analysis  Divergence analysis
 
250mb:
>Isotach analysis
 
Multi-level
:Four-panel UA analysis product
==0==
The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here



Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

February
Temperature     Precipitation

February-March-April

Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated January 24th]


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
 
Out of service awaiting parts until at least Friday, Jan. 23rd
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]



Latest Nexrad radar composite for Texas and nearby states.
(The two preceding images are used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)

Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?



If you need a refresher on the significance of severe storm forecast parameters, click here .

When I am unable to get updates posted, please refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links below) and to the Hazardous Weather Outlook product issued by Fort Worth and other NWS offices.


Current Severe Storm Warnings and Forecasts

Current Warnings and Advisories for Texas

Storm Prediction Center Discussion for Localized Threats (MCD)

Storm Prediction Center Outlooks (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3 and Experimental Days 4-8)

Storm Prediction Center Severe Storm and Tornado Watches


Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

  Highway Overpasses are not tornado shelters! Click here to find out why.

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 08-18-2014.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

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