Weather Data, Forecasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook for 02/12/2016 through 02/18/2016
Last update at 7:15am 02/12/2016


When this page is not updating, you need another resource ... [click here]
Here's something new offered by the Nat'l. Weather Service's Southern Region Headquarters ... an Adaptable Widget ... click here to access the widget page, enter your zip code or address, and then click "Go". Within a few seconds, you should see a page full of weather information specific to your location. Try it, I think you'll like it.

Audio Forecast Discussion -not today
Graphics always available:  Visible Satellite  Infrared Satellite  Water Vapor Satellite  Regional Radar  NWS-WPC Surface Analysis  WPC 2.5 Day Forecast Maps  WPC Days 3-7 Forecast Maps
Current Graphics for
Today ...

>>Please  note: In addition to the Audio Forecast Discussion, there is often a text discussion a little farther down this page. It is labeled Text Forecast Discussion.<<   
For the latest weather radar images from all radar sites in Texas, as well as portions of Oklahoma and Louisiana ... [
Click here]
Skycams from around Texas - [click here]

Use the Links Below to Access Severe Weather Warnings and Other NWS Products
(Be sure you check date/time stamp on linked products to be sure they are current)

NWS Office
Tornado Warning
Severe T-storm Warning
Severe Weather Statement
Flash Flood Warning
Areal Flood Advisory
Flash Flood Watch
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast
Hourly Observations
Tabular Forecast
Winter Watches & Warnings
Fort Worth
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
HWO
STF
OBS
TAB
WSW
Austin-SA
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
HWO
STF
OBS
TAB
WSW
Houston
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
HWO
STF
1
TAB
WSW
SanAngelo
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
HWO
STF
OBS
TAB
WSW
1NWSFO Austin-San Antonio issues a combined hourly observation product including all stations in Southeast and South Texas, including those in the Houston NWSFO CWA.
[Please report any broken or missing links in the above table to this email address: curtis@vvm.com]


Tropical Weather Summary

There are two tropical cyclones in the southern oceans. Details can be found on my Tropical Page.

Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page with graphics on all storms

Links to sections on this page:
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]


Special Weather or Climate Issues

A new reco0rd daily high temperature was set yesterday at the Waco Regional Airport. The high yesterday was 83, breaking the previous record of 81 degrees set in 1922. Also, the Austin-Cam Mabry high yesterday of 83 degrees tied the daily record of 83 degrees set in 1976.


Tabular Forecast
Bullet Forecast Summary (includes Nat'l. Weather Service forecast data for the following locations: DFW Airport, Temple, Austin-City, San Antonio, College Station, and San Saba)
[Update 5:30am 02-12-2016]
  • Today > Mostly sunny, unseasonably warm, highs 67 north to 80 south
  • Tonight > Fair and cool, lows 40 to 47
  • Saturday > Becoming partly cloudy, not as warm, highs 59-70
  • Sunday > Mostly cloudy, chance of showers in the evening, mainly north and east, AM lows 48-54, PM highs 65 to 75
  • Monday > Cloudy to partly cloudy, mild, chance of AM showers except south and west, AM lows 47-55, PM highs 64-76
  • Tuesday > Mostly sunny, cool AM, warm PM, AM lows 42-48, PM highs 70-76
  • Wednesday > Partly cloudy, mild AM, warm PM, lows 45-49, PM highs 72-77
  • Thursday > Fair and warm, AM lows 48-53, PM highs 71-77

Text Forecast Discussion

...pending...

Latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the NWS Storm Prediction Center


Graphics above are as follows (l-r):  Day-1 SPC Tornado Probability Outlook, Day-1 SPC Categorical Convective Outlook, Day-2 SPC Categorical Convective Outlook, and SPC Day-3 Categorical Convective Outlook.
  • Day-1Tornado probability:  Less than 2%.
  • Day-1 = No storms expected.
  • Day-2 = No storms expected.
  • Day-3 = General (non-severe) thunderstorms are possible in the green-shaded area..

Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Today, Feb. 11th
84 1962//-08 1899
84 1962//13 1905
83 1951//-01 1899
84 1962//+04 1899
87 1922//20 1988
Normal for today
High 60//Low 39
High 61//Low 39
High 65//Low 44
High 66//Low 44
High 64//Low 44
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 10-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

Station
D/N
02/11
02/10
02/09
02/08
02/07
02/06
02/05
02/04
02/03
02/02
DFW Int'l. Airport
+1.5

+05
+02
+01
+01
-03
-02
-05
-04
+09
Waco Regional Airport
-1.3

+01
-0-
-01
-02
-07
-06
-08
-05
+07
Austin-City (Camp Mabry)
+0.8

+02
+03
+02
-04
-02
-05
-06
-04
+09
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
-0.2

+04
+01
-01
-05
-03
-07
-07
-02
+08
College Station Airport
-1.8

-0-
-01
-03
-05
-06
-07
-08
-04
+09
The table above covers the past ten days and shows the daily mean departure from normal of temperatures (+06d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for e+12ach of the ten days, adding those up, then dividing the sum by 10.

Precipitation Records

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month by month precipitation (inches) for 2015
4.30"
0.66"
3.03"
3.18"
9.01"
9.35"
0.05"
0.65"
1.65"
12.36"
6.20"
2.35"
Cumulative precipitation for (inches) 2015
4.30"
4.96"
7.99"
11.17"
20.18"
29.53"
29.58" 30.59" 32.24"
44.24"
50.44"
52.79"
Month by month precipitation (inches) 2016
0.48"
0.02"










Cumulative precipitation (inches) for  2016 0.48"
0.50"










This table presents precipitation data at my home located 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple (also, 3 miles north of downtown Belton). I participate in CoCoRaHS (learn more about the organization - click here) and my numerical identifier is TX-BEL-28.

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data may be  delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center




WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
               

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
           
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE: COMPLETE
Station Name
02/11/2015
12Z PWAT
925T C
TEMP
850T C
TEMP
700T C
TEMP
500T C
TEMP
02/12/2015
12Z PWAT
925T C
TEMP
850T C
TEMP
700T C
TEMP
500T C
TEMP
STN
Brownsville
0.47
16
12
04
-14
0.66
15
14
06
-12
BRO
Corpus Christi
M
-
-
-
-
0.58
18
14
05
-13
CRP
Del Rio
0.28
19
16
05
-15
0.28
21
16
06
-13
DRT
Fort Worth
0.28
20
16
04
-16
0.44
15
13
04
-15
FWD
Midland 0.20
&
06
04
-15
0.20
&
15
05
-13
MAF
El Paso
0.19
&
14
05
-14
0.15
&
15
06
-12
EPZ
Albuquerque
0.13
&
&
05
-16
0.24
&
&
06
-14
ABQ
Amarillo
0.19
&
12
05
-15
0.31
&
13
05
-16
AMA
Norman
0.27
12
15
03
-18
0.46
16
11
0
-16
OUN
Little Rock
0.41
13
11
01
-20
0.39
11
07
-03
-16
LZK
Shreveport 0.37
18
16
02
-17
0.57
15
13
02
-15
SHV
Lake Charles 0.49
15
13
02
-16
0.57
16
12
03
-15
LCH
     [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M = Missing, no report received / D = Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]   
This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (6pm CST and 6am CST).  The table shows 12 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. At times, I may add the current data for 6pm. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and all temperatures are in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -0.5 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .]


  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES  COMPLETE
[I produce the same products for Europe and adjacent areas, and for much of Asia (coming soon). I am delaying running the European charts until close to 8am CST in order to capture more data. You can see them by clicking here.]
[Notes: (1) I have discontinued the wind vector analyses except at 925mb and 850mb as we head into Fall and Winter because the vectors (related to wind velocity) become too long and congested. The shading has been added to the isotach analysis charts. (2) I have made a change to all of the wind speed analysis products. Color shading will aid in recognizing areas of stronger wind flow. The shading is adjusted for height because stronger winds are almost always found higher in the troposphere. I have added a small table below showing the various colors and related wind speeds.]
925mb: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Wind Vector analysis

850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Wind Vector analysis5

700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >>Isotach analysis
 
 500mb:
>Relative Humidity  >Balanced Height Analysis   >Absolute Vorticity  >Isotach Analysis

300mb:
>Divergence analysis ]
 
250mb:
>Isotach analysis

==0==
Velocity
(knots)
925mb
850mb
700mb
500mb
400mb
250mb
>15
Pale Green
Pale Green
-
-
-
-
>30 Pale Yellow
Pale Yellow
Pale Yellow
-
-
-
>45 Green
Green
Green
Green
Green
-
>60
 Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
>75
-
-
Salmon
Salmon
Salmon
Salmon
>90
-
-
Red
Red
Red
Red
>105
-
-
-
Purple
Purple
Purple
>120
-
-
-
Pink
Pink
Pink
>135
-
-
-
Cyan
Cyan
Cyan
>150
-
-
-
Fuchsia Fuchsia
Fuchsia
[> means 'greater than', so in the table above, >60 means the area is shaded only if the wind velocity was more than 60 knots, etc. Convert knots to miles per hour by multiplying knots by 1.1508.]

MANDATORY LEVELS:
By international convention, these specific pressure levels must be reported in the RAOB message: the surface, 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 70, 50, and 10 mb.. The information for some of these levels is plotted routinely on constant pressure charts to show the spatial variability of these levels and it is used as input in the numerical weather prediction models.


The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here




Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

February
Temperature     Precipitation

February-March-April

Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated Jan. 28th]


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]
(The preceding image used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)




Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?




Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 12-29-2015.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

This page created with Mozilla SeaMonkey