Weather Data, Foreasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook for 5/22/2015 through 05/29/2015
Last update at 1:50pm 05-22
-2015
When this page is not being updated, you need another resource ... [click here]

 

FROM NWSFO FORT WORTH-DALLAS...
THE NWSFO HAS EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES IN THE FORT WORTH-DALLAS COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 1PM TOMORROW (SATURDAY) THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAY 25TH (MONDAY) FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL TEXAS:
DALLAS... ERATH...
HOOD...JOHNSON...PARKER...SOMERVELL...TARRANT...
ELLIS...COMANCHE...MILLS...HAMILTON...BOSQUE...HILL...NAVARRO...FREESTONE...ANDERSON...LAMPASAS...CORYELL...
BELL...
MCLENNAN...FALLS...LIMESTONE...LEON...MILAM...AND ROBERTSON.

=0=
FROM NWSFO AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1PM TOMORROW (SATURDAY) THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAY 25TH (MONDAY) FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL TEXAS: LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-
BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA AND FRIO.


  Click here for the latest severe weather warnings ...
Skycams from around Texas - [click here] 

Use the Links Below to Access Latest Severe Weather Warnings and Other NWS Products
Some links below use abbreviations to identify the type of product: TOR=Tornado Warning; SVR=Severe Thunderstorm Warning; SWS=Special Weather Statement
FROM NWSFO FORT WORTH-DALLAS:

Latest warnings and/or special weather statements for the northern half of Central Texas TOR [click here] SVR [click here]  SWS [click here]
Hourly observations for the northern half of Central Texas  [click here]

Hazardous Weather Outlook for the northern half of Central Texas [click here]
 
FROM NWSFO AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO:

Latest warnings and/or special weather statements for the southern half of Central Texas TOR [click here] SVR [click hereSWS [click here]
Hourly observations for the southern half of Central Texas as well as southeastern and southern Texas [click here]

Hazardous Weather Outlook for the southern half of Central Texas [click here]

FROM NWSFO SAN ANGELO:

Latest warnings and/or special weather statements for west central Texas and the Big Country: TOR [click here] SVR [click hereSWS [click here]
Hourly observations for west central Texa
s and the Big Country [click here]
Hazardous Weather Outlook for west central Texas and the Big Country [click here]


FROM NWSFO HOUSTON-GALVESTON:

Latest warnings and/or special weather statements for southeastern Central Texas counties: TOR [click here] SVR [click hereSWS [click here]
Hourly observations for southeastern Central Texas counties [click here]

Hazardous Weather Outlook for southeastern Central Texas counties [click here]


You can follow me on Twitter @Centxwx
 
click here for the latest severe weather warnings ...
Click here to visit my Severe Weather Page ....
The Nat'l. Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather far off the Mexican coast in the Pacific ... some development is possible over the next five days ...

Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page...

Links to sections on this page:
[Special Events] [Forecast Discussion] [Weather History] [Storm Prediction Center Outlooks] [NWS forecasts, observations, outlooks, etc.] [Local Climate Statistics]
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]

(Daily Record High/Low Temperatures now included in Local Climate Statistics below)


Special Weather or Climate Issues
 

The Climate Prediction Center has released the temperature and precipitation probability outlooks for June, and for the three month period June-August. The outlooks call for a probability of above normal precipitation through June and through the summer! Hope you like rain! Look out for the mosquitoes!

Forecast Discussion
11:50am Update:

A continued influx of cool, moist air from the lower Mississippi Valley has retarded the northward progress of the warm front mentioned earlier this morning. As of 11am, the warm front was inland near Palacios, extended to the immediate vicinity of San Antonio, and from there west along US-90 to Del Rio. Temperatures north of the front are in the 60s, while south of the front readings are from the mid 70s, to mid 80s. The front is expected to move slowly northward this afternoon, with only spotty showers across the area north of the front.


Previous Discussion:

The cold front that moved south across Central Texas Wednesday came to a halt across the middle Texas coast west into the Rio Grande Plains and then northwest to just southwest of Del Rio. The airmass south of the front has remained warm and very moist, in contrast to the much cooler conditions north of the front. Analysis of 6am CDT surface data found northeasterly winds of 5-10 mph north of the front, with the high pressure area that is the center of the cooler air located near Memphis, and beginning to shift eastward. As that occurs, and as low pressure begins to deepen in the lee of the southern Rockies, our surface winds will shift to a southeasterly direction, and the remnants of the cold front will shift northward as a warm front, and gradually dissipate. This process will occur today and virtually all of Central Texas should be back in the warm, muggy air by late afternoon. A major upper air storm system over southern California and Nevada will send ripples of upper air energy across Texas (southwest to northeast) today, tonight and tomorrow, then the upper air storm itself will lift into the Four Corners area tomorrow night and Sunday, placing much of Texas in a strongly diffluent zone aloft. That pattern is typically one which produces heavy rainfall and the possibility of severe thunderstorms, and that's what we expect, beginning tomorrow afternoon and continuing through much of the holiday weekend. Because of the wet weather pattern we've been in for several weeks, additional rainfall will almost certainly cause areas of both flash flooding and river flooding. With many outdoor festivals and other events scheduled for this weekend through Monday, you will need to take heed of any watches and warnings that may be issued. Additionally, with widespread thunderstorm activity expected, it is appropriate to remind you that cloud-to-ground lightning is a deadly threat when you are outdoors, and lightning can strike as much as ten miles from the parent thunderstorm, so please!!! seek appropriate shelter if a thunderstorm approaches your outdoor activities this holiday weekend. 


Latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the NWS Storm Prediction Center


Graphics above are as follows (l-r):  Day-1 SPC Tornado Probability Outlook, Day-1 SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook, Day-2 SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlook, and SPC Day-3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.


Extended Outlook (Days 4-8)
[Click on the image to see a larger version]


SPC Day-1, Day-2, Day-3 Categorical Outlooks for the entire continental U.S. from the College of DuPage NEXLAB

Links to official Nat'l. Weather Service observations, outlooks and forecasts

Latest hourly surface observations from weather stations in or near Central Texas:
North Central and Northwestern Texas [click here] / South Central, Southeastern, and South Texas [click here] / West Central Texas and the Big Country [click here]

Latest Hazardous Weather Outlooks from NWSFOs with responsibility for one or more Central Texas county:

[Fort Worth-Dallas] [Austin-San Antonio] [Houston-Galveston] [San Angelo]

Latest Forecasts from NWS Forecast Offices responsible for Central Texas counties:
[Fort Worth-Dallas] / [Austin-San Antonio] / [Houston-Galveston] / [San Angelo]


Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Today, May 22nd
99 2005//51 1931
99 2005//47 2001
98 1939//54 2001
100 1989//50 1892
96 2005//53 2001
Normals for today
High 85//Low 66
High 87//Low 66
High 88//Low 68
High 88//Low 68
High 87//Low 68
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 8-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

Station
8-Day Average d/n
5/21
5/20
5/19
5/18
5/17
5/16
5/15
5/14
DFW Int'l. Airport
-01
-14
-01
-0-
+02
-02
+03
-01
+01
Waco Regional Airport
-0-
-10
+04
+04
+03
-03
+05
-01
+01
Austin-City
-0-
-09
+03
+05
+04
-02
-0-
-04
+02
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
-0-
-06
+04
+04
+04
-02
+01
-03
+02
College Station Airport
-0- -07
+04
+03
+02
-02
+02
-03
-0-
+01
The table above covers the past eight days and shows the daily mean departure from normal of temperatures (d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for each of the eight days, adding those up, then dividing the sum by 8.

Precipitation Records

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Precipitation (inches)
4.30
0.66
3.03
3.18
3.20 to date







This table presents precipitation data at my home located 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple (also, 3 miles north of downtown Belton). I participate in CoCoRahs (learn more about the organization - click here) and my CoCoRahs identifier is TX-BEL-28. In 2014, I recorded 29.52 inches of precipitation. That's a little below normal. The first four months of 2014 (January through April) were exceptionally dry, with only 4.06 inches of precipitation. The next four months (May through August) were exceptionally wet, with 16.81 inches of rainfall. The final four months (September through December) were close to normal, at 8.72 inches.
(For the period January through April this year, I have measured 11.17 inches of precipitation, which is 0.58" above normal. (I am using the NWS normal precipitation records for Waco, the closest station for which I have "normal" data.)



Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data is delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center


[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]


WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
           

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
   
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
Station
05/22/2015 12Z PWAT 925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
05/21/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
05/20/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
05/19/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
05/18/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
05/17/2015
12Z PWAT
925T
C
850T
C
700T
C
Brownsville
M
-
-
-
1.76
22
20
10
1.85
21
19
12
1.85
20
19
10
1.62
21
20
12
1.68
21
21
12
C-Christi
1.95
22
16
09
2.07
21
18
08
1.78
22
17
12
1.99
22
20
11
1.75
21
20
10
1.56
21
20
12
Del Rio
1.54
18
14
11
1.57
18
17
08
1.36
20
17
10
1.73
20
16
12
1.38
22
17
11
1.14
21
19
09
Fort Worth
1.56
13
13
04
M
M
M
M
1.61
19
14
07
1.72
20
15
07
1.07
21
19
06
1.48
20
18
06
Midland 1.19
&
13
06
1.13
&
11
06
1.04
&
17
10
1.32
&
16
10
0.78
&
19
08
0.43
&
16
04
El Paso
0.46
&
14
06
0.84
&
16
09
0.20
&
20
07
0.45
&
20
06
0.43
&
21
07
0.38
&
13
02
Amarillo
0.83
&
07
03
0.66
&
03
02
0.69
&
04
04
1.15
&
14
05
0.40
&
20
04
0.27
&
13
05
Albuquerq'
0.54
&
&
04
0.56
&
&
04
0.25
&
&
05
0.55
&
&
04
0.37
&
&
07
0.35
&
&
01
Norman
1.42
11
10
04
0.91
06
11
04
1.20
12
13
07
1.06
18
15
04
0.77
22
18
03
0.71
15
17
08
Little Rock 0.64
08
11
05
1.01
08
14
04
1.76
16
14
04
M
M
M
M
1.35
18
16
06
1.72
19
15
06
Shreveport 1.21
16
13
06
1.64
18
15
05
1.46
19
17
07
1.48
19
14
07
0.86*
20
16
M
1.41
19
18
07
Lk. Charles 1.70
18
16
05
1.74
22
17
08
1.65
20
17
09
1.80
20
17
07
1.94
21
18
10
1.53
22
19
08
 [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M=Missing, no report received / D=Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]

This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 925mb, 850mb and 700mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (7pm CDT and 7am CDT).  The table shows 14 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. The table will include not only today's data,but also the previous
four days. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and all temperature is in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -05 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .]

  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES COMPLETE

925mb: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Streamline analysis

850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Streamline analysis

700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >Streamline analysis
 
 500mb:
>Relative Humidity  >Balanced height analysis  >Isotach analysis >Absolute Vorticity

300mb:
Isotach analysis  Divergence analysis ]
 
250mb:
>Isotach analysis

200mb: >Isotach analysis

==0==
The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here



Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

June
Temperature     Precipitation

June-July-August

Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated May 18th]
Fill'er up!


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]
(The preceding image used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)




Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?



If you need a refresher on the significance of severe storm forecast parameters, click here .

When I am unable to get updates posted, please refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links below) and to the Hazardous Weather Outlook product issued by Fort Worth and other NWS offices.


Current Severe Storm Warnings and Forecasts

Current Warnings and Advisories for Texas

Storm Prediction Center Discussion for Localized Threats (MCD)

Storm Prediction Center Outlooks (Day 1, Day 2, Day 3 and Experimental Days 4-8)

Storm Prediction Center Severe Storm and Tornado Watches


Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

  Highway Overpasses are not tornado shelters! Click here to find out why.

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 08-18-2014.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

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