Weather Data, Forecasts and Outlook
Central Texas Weather Outlook for 06/18/2016 through 06/24/2016
Last updated 6:32am 06-18-2016

Notice: This website will be unattended from 7am June 18th through 7pm June 27th.
I will not be able to repair any issues that may arise.
Products drawn from other websites should function normally.

When this page is not updating, you need another resource
... [click here]


Here's something new offered by the Nat'l. Weather Service's Southern Region Headquarters ... an Adaptable Widget ... click here to access the widget page, enter your zip code or address, and then click "Go". Within a few seconds, you should see a page full of weather information specific to your location. Try it, I think you'll like it.

Audio Forecast Discussion -not today
Graphics always available:  Visible Satellite  Infrared Satellite  Water Vapor Satellite  Regional Radar  NWS-WPC Surface Analysis  WPC 2.5 Day Forecast Maps  WPC Days 3-7 Forecast Maps
Current Graphics for
Today ...

>>Please  note: In addition to the Audio Forecast Discussion, there is often a text discussion a little farther down this page. It is labeled Text Forecast Discussion.<

Additional Tools for Monitoring Central Texas Weather
RADAR:
[Click here] for the latest weather radar images from radar sites in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana ...
RADAR & SATELLITE DATA:
[Click here] for my Situational Awareness page
SKYCAMS: Skycams around Texas and a few from elsewhere - [click here]


Use the Links Below to Access Severe Weather Warnings and Other NWS Products
(Be sure you check date/time stamp on linked products to be sure they are current)
Watch and Warning Products
NWS Office
Tornado Warning
Severe T-storm Warning
Severe Weather Statement
Flash Flood Warning
Areal Flood Advisory
Flash Flood Watch
Special Weather Statement
Fort Worth
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
Austin-SA
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
Houston
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS
SanAngelo
TOR
SVR
SWS
FFW
AFA
WAT
SPS

Regular Forecast and Other Products
NWS Office
Area Forecast Discussion
Tabular Forecast
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast

Hourly Observations
Fort Worth
AFD TAB HWO STF
OBS
Austin-Sa
AFD TAB HWO STF
OBS
Houston
AFD TAB HWO STF
1
SanAngelo
AFD TAB HWO STF
OBS
1NWSFO Austin-San Antonio issues a combined hourly observation product including all stations in Southeast and South Texas, including those in the Houston NWSFO CWA.
[Please report any broken or missing links in the above table to this email address: curtis@vvm.com]



Tropical Weather Summary


Click here to visit my Tropical Weather Page with graphics on all storms

Links to sections on this page:
[U.S. Lightning Map] [Latest surface map from WPC, etc.] [WPC Precipitation Forecasts] [Upper Air Data] [Upper Air Maps] [CPC Extended Outlooks] [Lake Levels] [Central Texas Radar]


Special Weather or Climate Issues

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the NOAA-National Weather Service, says that temperatures have returned to normal (ENSO-neutral) in the tropical Pacific Ocean from south of Hawaii to the western coast of South America, signaling the end of the El Nio pattern that has given Central Texas much above normal rainfall for the past eighteen months or so. The CPC says that La Nia conditions are expected to develop in the same area of the Pacific Ocean by early this fall. The waters of the Pacific are warmer than normal during El Nio events and cooler than normal during La Nia events. If a La Nia develops as expected, it would mean a return to more normal rainfall patterns in Texas, and perhaps, by next winter and spring, to below normal rainfall. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts weather and climate conditions worldwide. Typically, there are more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea during La Nia years. However, another oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation1 (AMO) may be trending toward cooler waters in the areas where tropical cyclones breed, and it is possible that the two oscillations (La Nia and AMO) could offset each other. You can read the CPC ENSO outlook by clicking here.
===
1
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is an ocean current that is thought to affect the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean based on different modes on multidecadal timescales. While there is some support for this mode in models and in historical observations, controversy exists with regard to its amplitude, and in particular, the attribution of sea surface temperature change to natural or anthropogenic causes, especially in tropical Atlantic areas important for hurricane development.

Forecast Discussion

...pending...

Storm Prediction Center Outlooks






Local Climate Statistics
Record Temperatures1
 Dallas-Fort Worth
Waco
Austin-Mabry
San Antonio
College Station
Today, June 18th
=
=
=
=
=
Normal for today
High 92 //Low 72
High 92//Low 71
High 92 /Low 73
High 93 //Low 73
High 92//Low 73
1 Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).  

Running 10-Day Departure from Normal (d/n) of Daily Mean Temperature

update pending
Station
D/N
06/16
06/15
06/14
06/13
06/12
06/11
06/10
06/09
06/08
06/07
DFW Int'l. Airport
+2.3
=
+06
+02
+02
+03
+02
+03
+03
+02
+02
Waco Regional Airport
+1.7
=
+05
+06
+03
+02
+06
-0-
-0-
-01
-02
Austin-City (Camp Mabry)
+1.7
=
+05
+04
+03
+04
+03
-02
+01
-0-
-0-
San Antonio Int'l. Airport
+0.4
=
+04
+03
+03
+04
+02
-01
-02
-02
-03
College Station Airport
+1.5
=
+04
+04
+04
+01
+02
-0-
+02
-0-
-0-
The table above covers the past ten days and shows the daily mean departure from normal of temperatures (+06d/n) at the stations listed. The mean temperature is determined by taking the high and low for the day, adding them together, and dividing by 2. The average departure from normal is determined by taking the mean for each of the six days, summing those up, then dividing the sum by 10.

Precipitation Records

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month by month precipitation (inches) for 2015
4.30"
0.66"
3.03"
3.18"
9.01"
9.35"
0.05"
0.65"
1.65"
12.36"
6.20"
2.35"
Cumulative precipitation for (inches) 2015
4.30"
4.96"
7.99"
11.17"
20.18"
29.53"
29.58" 30.59" 32.24"
44.24"
50.44"
52.79"
Month by month precipitation (inches) 2016 (updates @ 7am CDT)
0.48"
1.46"
4.88"
9.76"
5.50"
2.85"






Cumulative precipitation (inches) for  2016
0.48"
1.94"
6.82"
16.58"
22.08"
24.93"






This table presents precipitation data at my home located 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple (also, 3 miles north of downtown Belton). I participate in CoCoRaHS (learn more about the organization - click here) and my numerical identifier is TX-BEL-28.

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes


This data may be delayed up to 30 minutes. Do NOT attempt to use this display for safety purposes. Because of the delay, it may not display current lightning near your location!

Latest Surface Analysis Map from NWS Weather Prediction Center




WPC Precipitation Forecasts for Days 1-3, 4-5, and 6-7
               

WPC Precipitation Forecast for Days 1-7
           
  (Click on any map for a larger version)
NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for Days 1 through 3, Days 4 and 5, and Days 6 and 7
and for the entire 7-day period

Upper Air Data
This section of the webpage will not be updated June 18-27.
Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE: PENDING
Station Name
06/28/2016
12Z PWAT
925T C
TEMP
850T C
TEMP
700T C
TEMP
500T C
TEMP
06/18/2016
PWAT
925T C
TEMP
850T C
TEMP
700T C
TEMP
500T C
TEMP
STN
Brownsville




-04





BRO
Corpus Christi




-07





CRP
Del Rio




-06





DRT
Fort Worth




-08





FWD
Midland



-06





MAF
El Paso




-07





EPZ
Amarillo




-08





AMA
Norman




-10





OUN
Jackson




-08





JAN
Slidell




-06





SIL
Shreveport



-11





-SHV
Lake Charles



-07





LCH
     [& = Station elevation is above this pressure level / F = Failed / M = Missing, no report received / D = Delayed, no report yet / * Questionable data]   
This table displays precipitable water** (PWAT), and the temperatures at 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from upper air soundings made around 00 UTC and 12UTC (6pm CST and 6am CST).  The table shows 12 stations near Central Texas that make these observations. At times, I may add the current data for 6pm. In the table above, PWAT is in inches and all temperatures are in degrees Celsius. **Precipitable Water - measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. 
[***Explanation of temperatures showing +0 or -0. The soundings are reported in 0.1 Celsius. I round them up or down to even numbers, except in the case of readings between +0.5 and -0.5 Celsius. Those I enter as +0 or -0. So, for example, a reported reading of -0.4 would be entered in the table as " -0 " and a reading of +0.4 would be entered in the table as +0 .]


  Latest Upper Air Analysis Maps:
 
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES PENDING
[I produce the same products for Europe and adjacent areas, and for much of Asia (coming soon). I am delaying running the European charts until close to 9:00am CDT in order to capture more data. You can see them by clicking here.]
[Notes: (1) I have discontinued the wind vector analyses except at 925mb and 850mb as we head into Fall and Winter because the vectors (related to wind velocity) become too long and congested. The shading has been added to the isotach analysis charts. (2) I have made a change to all of the wind speed analysis products. Color shading will aid in recognizing areas of stronger wind flow. The shading is adjusted for height because stronger winds are almost always found higher in the troposphere. I have added a small table below showing the various colors and related wind speeds.]
925mb: >Temperature analysis >Mixing ratio analysis   >Wind Vector analysis
850mb: >Mixing ratio analysis  >Temperature analysis  >Height analysis  >Wind Vector analysis5
700mb: >Temperature analysis  >Mixing ratio analysis  >Height analysis >>Isotach analysis
500mb: >Relative Humidity  >Balanced Height Analysis   >Absolute Vorticity  >Isotach Analysis
300mb: >Divergence analysis ]
250mb: >Isotach analysis

==0==
Velocity
(knots)
925mb
850mb
700mb
500mb
400mb
250mb
>15
Pale Green
Pale Green
-
-
-
-
>30 Pale Yellow
Pale Yellow
Pale Yellow
-
-
-
>45 Green
Green
Green
Green
Green
-
>60
 Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
>75
-
-
Salmon
Salmon
Salmon
Salmon
>90
-
-
Red
Red
Red
Red
>105
-
-
-
Purple
Purple
Purple
>120
-
-
-
Pink
Pink
Pink
>135
-
-
-
Cyan
Cyan
Cyan
>150
-
-
-
Fuchsia Fuchsia
Fuchsia
[> means 'greater than', so in the table above, >60 means the area is shaded only if the wind velocity was more than 60 knots, etc. Convert knots to miles per hour by multiplying knots by 1.1508.]

MANDATORY LEVELS:
By international convention, these specific pressure levels must be reported in the RAOB message: the surface, 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 70, 50, and 10 mb.. The information for some of these levels is plotted routinely on constant pressure charts to show the spatial variability of these levels and it is used as input in the numerical weather prediction models.


The College of DuPage meteorology program produces a vast number of graphics based on hourly surface data, 12-hourly upper air data, and output from the RAP (Rapid Refresh model) which runs hourly. [Click here




Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period   
Temperature     Precipitation

July
Temperature     Precipitation

July-August-September
Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the outlooks issued on Saturday and Sunday may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

Latest Lake Levels
[Updated through June 13th]


NWS NEXRAD RADAR FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Latest single frame image from the Central Texas nexrad radar located at Granger Lake.
[The time stamps on the image are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert to CST, subtract 6 hours. For example, 1800UTC is 1200CST (i.e. 12 noon).]
 [Image provided by and used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, Next Generation Weather Lab, College of DuPage]

 

Click here for the full suite of products from GRK radar.

Other WSR-88D radar sites in and around Central Texas (click on the radar site name):  [Fort Worth] [New Braunfels] [Del Rio] [San Angelo] [Abilene] [Shreveport] [Houston] [Corpus Christi] [Brownsville] [Midland] [Lubbock] [Amarillo]
(The preceding image used with the permission of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage Meteorology Program.)




Click here for: Radar graphics from all radar sites in Texas and some from nearby states ... 

Close-up Visible Satellite View of Central Texas

Regional (Central Texas) visible satellite image (used with permission of Paul Sirvatka, COD Meteorology Program)

Listing of counties for which each NWSFO issues zone (county) forecasts (limited to Central Texas counties):
NWSFO Fort Worth-Dallas: Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Dallas, Tarrant, Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, Lampasas, McLennan, Hood, Somervell, Hill, Johnson, Ellis, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Milam, Leon and Robertson.
NWSFO Austin-San Antonio: Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Comal, Bexar, Bandera, Bastrop, Blanco, Kerr, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, Llano, Real.
NWSFO Houston-Galveston: Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison.
NWSFO San Angelo: McCulloch, Brown, San Saba, Kimble, Menard, Mason.


Central Texas Tornado History Page

   Moved to the page dealing with severe convective storms / follow link at top of this page ...

Additional Radar Resources
Nexrad data from the Central Texas nexrad radar (GRK, near Granger) and six other nearby nexrad radars. On each page, clicking on the radar image will bring up the VAD Wind Profile from that radar. Across the top of each page, you can also select other products from the GRK radar only. All of these images are displayed courtesy of Paul Sirvatka at the College of DuPage.

>>>For GRK and radars west through north, click this link.

>>>For GRK and radars southeast through southwest, click this link

May 6, 2006 Waco Tornado: Radar images and other information on second Waco tornado in one week period ...
March 21, 2005 Tornado near Marlin  Preliminary data and link to photos by Bill Purcell, a storm  chaser from Houston ...
Memorial Day Storm, 2004: Images from the 5-31-2004 (Memorial Day) severe thunderstorm that affected Bell and Falls counties ...
Jarrell 'Reprise':A Fresh Look at the Central Texas Tornado Outbreak of 1997 ...
On the Automated Detection of Severe Storms and Tornadoes: Can Doppler radar automatically detect or predict tornadoes?




Tornado Outbreaks Spawned by Tropical Cyclones at Landfall
The subject of tornadoes produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) has been a fascination (and a research interest) of mine for years. After working through several iterations of the research, the final manuscript was submitted an the A.M.S. journal. The A.M.S. journals, like most scientific publications, subject proposed articles to a formal peer review process. My manuscript has now been published in the April issue of Weather and Forecasting. Here is a link to the article. [Note: viewing requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.]

Computer Forecasts of Severe Storm Parameters

Have you ever wondered how computer models of the atmosphere can be used to forecast severe storms, check out this section in which I briefly explain some of the computer products and parameters used in forecasting severe storms.


Severe Storms in Central Texas

Click here to access a section describing the forecasts and nowcasts of significant severe storm events in Central Texas!


Other Related Links

Current Southern Plains Surface Map (ideal for doing your own analysis)

Latest Hi-Res Visible Satellite Image centered on Central Texas

Latest Water Vapor Satellite Image from the eastern GOES

Back to my main homepage

Jump to my section on storm and nature photography


And perhaps you'd like to know how we're doing on rainfall and soil moisture conditions so far this year. Here's a clickable link to the Climate Prediction Center's latest map showing the Drought Severity Index (Palmer Long Term Index) for the U.S. By the way, if you're looking for that neat high-resolution visible satellite image which previously occupied this space, it's gone. But if you liked that shot, you can get them directly from NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the NASA MSFC, Huntsville, Alabama at this clickable link.


Content on this page was last updated on 12-29-2015.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at curtis@vvm.com

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daylight time 2016