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Weather Forecasts and Outlooks

Central Texas Weather Outlook for 05-16-2012 through 05-23-2012
[Updated at 8:00am 05-16-2012]

When this page is not being updated, here is a good alternative: Central Texas Zoom Radar

Tropical Storm Aletta has developed well off the southwest coast of Mexico. The storm is moving west (away from land). See my updated Tropical Weather Page for details.

This Week's Lake Levels
[updated weekly on Monday unless heavy rains occur during the week]

Forecast Discussion:

Morning surface analysis found a large area of mainly weak high pressure from southern Canada all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Embedded in the high pressure area is a weak cold front that stretches from the eastern Great Lakes to near St. Louis, MO to the OK-KS border then west to the Front Range of the Rockies near Denver, the north-northwest along the High Plains-Rocky Mountain interface. Weak low pressure areas are found over the U.S. east coast and just inland from the U.S. west coast.

Morning upper air anaysis found the cut-off mid-tropospheric vortex that moved across Texas the past two days to still be over southeastern Texas near Houston. This circulation and attendant impact on ascent in the lower and middle troposphere may again today provide an impetus for scattered thunderstorms activity during the afternoon hours, but mainly confined to southeastern Texas and the immediate coastal areas and near-shore waters southwest down the Texas coast to Brownsville.

Morning upper air soundings from stations in/near Central Texas show a significant decrease in precipitable water (PW) at all stations except those near the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas.

Latest Surface Analysis from HPC

HPC 5-Day (120-hour) QPF graphic valid 7am CDT Today through 7am CDT Monday

Graphic posted today on NWSFO Fort Worth homepage

The graphic above was posted today on the homepage of the NWS Forecast Office in Fort Worth. It purports to show that "dry conditions are returning" to North Texas. The apparent thrust of this message was to create public concern that the drought is rearing its head again. Before I go any further, let me say that I have much admiration for the Fort Worth NWS office, and I don't want what I say here to be some sort of general criticism of the men and women who work there. But ... I have to tell you that whoever decided to "wag the dog" in this manner is ignoring reality! Grabbing the last 30 days as some signal that dry conditions are returning is myopic. Let me show why I say that.

I'll start with rainfall records for my backyard CoCoRahs measuring site located 4.7 miles west of downtown Temple: For the period January 1st through today, I have measured 20.5 inches of rain. That breaks out as follows: January=3.36"; February=3.94"; March=8.19"; April=2.61"; so far in May=2.40".

After pulling those numbers from my daily submissions to CoCoRahs, I thought, well, maybe it has just been wetter here than elsewhere. So, from the NWSFO Fort Worth website, I obtained the Waco airport rainfall records. Waco's records look like this: January=4.24"; February=2.80"; March=8.33"; April=1.66"; May through the 14th=1.48"; total since January 1st=18.51". To put that in perspective, the normal for Waco through May 14th is 12.51", so Waco is 6 inches above normal since January 1st.

After pulling those numbers for Waco airport, I thought, well, maybe it has just been wetter at Waco than at the DFW airport. So, from the NWSFO Fort Worth website, I obtained the DFW airport rainfall records. DFW's records look like this: January=6.18; February=1.88"; March=5.74"; April=4.24"; May through the 14th=0.80"; total since January 1st=18.84".

So, my backyard compares closely to the Waco airport which compares closely to the DFW airport when one considers the year-to-date rainfall at all three locations. I came away from this little exercise thinking ... "Heck, there are probably a lot of folks who didn't object to the 30-day (relative) dry spell after all the rain we had in January through March!" And it doesn't stop there ... since September 15th, I have recorded almost 30 inches of rain here on the western side of Temple!

I will admit that the computer models are showing a relatively dry trend for the next ten days to two weeks for this part of Texas. I will add that several times since January 1st, what was shown as a dry spell by the extended range models ended up being on the wet side. Will that trend continue? Don't know!

Close-up visible satellite view of our part of Texas. Since it is a visible image, it requires sunlight, so this product will only show clouds during daylight hours. This product is generated by my friend Gilbert Sebenste at Northern Illinois University, and is used with his permission.

Central Texas Tornado History

May 12-19:

On May 12, 2000 ...
NCDC:A tornado formed over the central part of Lake Whitney at approximately 1610 CST. The tornado moved south and dissipated near the dam at 1625 CST. The tornado caused two deaths, both of which occurred in the same home, but no other injuries. The most significant damaged occurred at the Lakewood Harbor Subdivision, three miles northwest of the Dam, around 1615 CST. 38 homes were destroyed and 27 others were damaged. M70PH, F80PH May 12, 2000 - Event Narrative: A cold front moved into North Texas, and became stationary along a Bonham, Dallas, Hillsboro, Goldthwaite line. Numerous hail and wind reports were received. An F-3 tornado touched down near Lake Whitney in the late afternoon hours.The parent storm continued to develop on the south flank, resulting in a long lived wall cloud that moved south through southern Bosque, western McLennan, eastern Coryell, and western Bell counties. While reports of hail and funnels continued through the life of the storm, no additional tornadoes were sighted. }

On May 12, 1982, a tornado developed in Parker County ten miles south of Weatherford. The tornado moved east-northeast to ten miles east-southeast of Weatherford. It struck a mobile home park and destroyed five mobile homes and damaged twelve others. Damage was rated F2. A number of barns were damaged. The maximum path width was 150 yards and the path length was eight miles. There were six injuries but no deaths.

On May 13, 1994, a tornado developed near Marble Falls in Burnet County. Damage was rated F3, with three injuries but no deaths.

NCDC:The storm approached the city from the west-southwest. There were unconfirmed reports of funnels in the Horseshoe Bay area, four miles southwest of Marble Falls, before the storm arrived. Spotty damage was reported to roofs in the Horseshoe Bay area. The tornado first struck the west side of the city, crossing a heavy commercialized and residential area. Roofs were severely damaged at this time with several structures sustaining F1 and F2 damage. Several boats at a dealership were tossed on top of each other. Two-by-four's were embedded into the side of a church preschool care center, penetrating an inside classroom wall by four to five feet. Fortunately, all children had been moved into hallways just before the tornado arrived. Numerous commerical signs were down with widespread roof damage. This damage became even more extensive as the tornado moved across the northern part of the city. Marble Falls primary school also sustained damage, but students had been evacuated to the main school. Trees were uprooted on the school grounds and damage was reported to outbuildings. Metal I-beams were bent at a nearby metal building, indicating F2 to F3 damage. Three nearby semi-tractor trailer delivery trucks and a bread delivery truck were overturned. Two of these trucks were reported to have been lifted "two to three feet off of the ground" as they were overturned. At a nearby Wal-Mart department store 100 to 200 employees had taken shelter, having practiced their severe weather drill the day before. The store was hit and severely damaged, with the employees sustaining only a few minor injuries. Additional roof damage was reported at Marble Falls High School. Students had just executed a tornado drill as the storm struck. There was extensive peeling of metal from the auditorium and gymnasium roofs. In summary, over 440 homes sustained damage, with one house and 17 mobile homes destroyed and major damage to 36 homes. Eighteen businesses reported major damage with 47 others reporting minor damage. In addition, two bridges were damaged, along with severe damage to schools. In all, 512 structures sustained damage.

On May 15, 1922, a tornado developed in McLennan County north of Lorena. Damage was rated F2. There were no deaths or injuries.

That same day, another tornado developed in McLennan County near Downsville. Damage was rated F2. There were two injuries but no deaths.

That same day, a tornado developed in Williamson County northeast of Taylor. The tornado produced damage rated F2, but there were no deaths or injuries.

On May 16, 1953, a tornado developed in Leon County near Jewitt. The tornado moved from five miles southwest of Jewitt to near Centerville. It produced damage rated F2, with three injuries but no deaths. The tornado had a maximum path width of 150 yards and a path length of 12 miles.

On May 17, 1939, a tornado developed near Hewitt in McLennan County. Damaged was rated F2. There were three injuries and one death which occurred when one house was destroyed. Wind and hail caused over $1 million in damage across Central Texas on this day.

On May 17, 1989, a tornado developed 3 miles south-southwest of Jarrell in Williamson County shortly after 4:30am. The tornado moved to the northeast right up IH-35 through Jarrell. Many homes were damaged or destroyed. Damage was rated F3. There were 28 injuries and one death. The maximum path width was 1,500 yards but the path length was less than five miles.

On May 18, 1902, a tornado developed near Ben Hur in Limestone County and moved through the Shiloh community to Fairfield in Freestone County. Twelve people were injured and three were killed. The deaths occurred in the Ben Hur community. Thirty homes were damaged or destroyed in Fairfield, and the county courthouse was one of the buildings damaged. The path width of this tornado is not recorded but the path length was 40 miles.

On this same day, not truly in Central Texas but not too far removed, a violent tornado struck Goliad in Goliad County, southeast of San Antonio between Victoria and Beeville. Damage was rated F4. The tornado caused 114 deaths and at least 250 injuries. The maximum path width was 250 yards, and the path length was 15 miles. It was reported that many of the deaths occurred days after the tornado event as people who were injured died of their wounds.

On May 18, 1935, a tornado developed at Caldwell in Burleson County. Fifteen homes were damaged but there were no reported injuries or deaths. Damage was rated F2. The maximum path width was 100 yards and the path length was two miles.

That same day, a tornado developed a Hearne in Robertson County. Damage was rated F2. There were eight people injured but no deaths. Eight homes were destroyed and thirty were damaged. The maximum path width was 200 yards and the path length was six miles. It is possible that the same thunderstorm that produced the Caldwell tornado also produced the Hearne tornado.

That same day, a tornado developed in Freestone County four miles east of Fairfield. Several homes were damaged or destroyed. The damage wasd rated F2. One person was injured. The maximum path width was 70 yards and the path length was fifteen miles. Numerous tornadoes occurred outside of Central Texas later the same day.

On May 18, 1966, a tornado developed near Florence in Williamson County. Damage was rated F2. There were no injuries or deaths.

Each day I will provide information if significant tornadoes (that is, with damage rated F2 or greater) have occurred on that given date in the past. This history will be for Central Texas, roughly bounded on the north by Weatherford, Fort Worth and Dallas, on the east by Corsicana and Centerville, on the southeast by College Station, on the south by San Antonio, on the southwest by Junction, and on the northwest by Brownwood. Click here for a map showing counties covered.

Additional Radar Resources

When I am unable to get updates posted, please refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links below) and to the Hazardous Weather Outlookproduct issued by Fort Worth and other NWS offices.