Lon Curtis' Homepage

Central Texas Weather Outlook for 05-20-2013 through 05-27-2013
[Last update at 11:20pm 05-20-2013]

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Latest 0.5 degree radar data from Central Texas-Granger WSR-88D
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Forecast Discussion:

pending

Day-1 and Day-2 graphics have been updated as of 12:45pm / Day-3 graphics are up to date / Extended Outlook N/A =

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Outlooks for (left to right) Day-1, Day-2, and Day-3
[Click on an image to view a larger graphic]
[For the SPC Day-4 through 8 outlook graphic, click here]

NOAA Weather Prediction Center (WPC) QPF (Accumulated Precipitation Amount Forecasts) for the next seven days (168 hours)

Latest Surface Analysis

[Close-up analysis for south central U.S. click here]

Key to Plotted Station Data
[Details can be found here.]

Upper Air Data and Analyses

Upper Air Soundings: UPDATE COMPLETE
This table displays precipitable water (PWAT) from upper air soundings made around 7am CDT. The table shows the seven stations in or near Central Texas that make these observations. I have added two additional stations, Slidell, LA, and Jackson, MS to see if there is value added to the table as we go into summer and flow aloft over Central Texas becomes more easterly. (In other words, if we can track increases in PWAT approaching from the east which can occasionally lead to summer rainfall in Central Texas. The table includes not only today's data, but also the most recent four days. PWAT is in inches.

Station	Today - 05/20/2013	Sunday - 05/19/2013	Saturday - 05/18/2013	Friday - 05/17/2013	Thursday - 05/16/2013
Brownsville	1.24	1.70	1.69	1.20	1.32
Corpus Christi	1.23	1.28	1.37	1.09	1.25
Del Rio	1.34	1.58	1.62	1.23	1.27
Fort Worth	1.19	1.04	0.90	1.53	1.42
Midland	0.64	0.59	0.55	0.30	0.64
Shreveport	1.22	1.11	1.26	1.33	1.54
Lake Charles	1.50	1.36	1.33	1.29	1.54
Slidell	1.39	1.38	1.43	1.50	1.09
Jackson	1.36	1.21	1.22	1.38	1.07

Latest upper air analyses:
COMPUTER-GENERATED ANALYSES COMPLETE / MANUAL ANALYSES NOT TODAY
850mb temperature analysis
850mb mixing ratio analysis
850mb height analysis
700mb height analysis
500mb height analysis
[O-A 500mb Absolute Vorticity]
[O-A 250mb isotach analysis]
[O-A 300mb divergence analysis]

[I have made some changes to the upper air products. I am providing three separate graphics at 850mb, showing heights, temperatures, and mixing ratio. Mixing ratio is a good representation of how much moisture is located at the 850mb level. Temperatures are reported and displayed in degrees C. The upper air height analyses at 850, 700 and 500 millibars are "constant pressure" analyses. The main contours on the maps represent the height (in decameters) above mean sea level at which the stated pressure is found. The pressure is reported and analyzed in millibars (the units are identical to hectopascals). On a few maps, you may see dark gray contour lines. I use the dark gray to identify non-standard levels of height analysis, and only when the non-standard layer aids in identification of potentially important features missed by the standard analysis levels. On the 250 mb analysis, color-fill is used to display objectively-analyzed areas of stronger wind speeds. As of 29 Nov. 2012, I have added two objectively-analyzed maps: (a) 500mb Absolute Vorticity and (b) 1000-500mb Thickness.]

Record Data

Record Temperatures¹	Dallas-Fort Worth	Waco	Austin-Mabry	San Antonio	College Station
Monday, May 20th	98 (1922)/48 (1981)	95 (1996)/49 (2002)	101 (2008)/53 (1926)	100 (1996)/49 (2002)	95 (1933)/53 (1981)
Tuesday, May 21st	99 (2005)/51 (1947)	99 (2005)/52 (2002)	99 (1939)/52 (1960)	98 (1939)/52 (1892)	96 (2005)/50 (2002)
Wednesday, May 22nd	99 (2005)/51 (1931)	98 (1996)/47 (2001)	100 (2008)/50 (1913)	100 (1989)/50 (1892)	96 (2001)/53 (2001)

¹ Displayed as follows: record high temperature (year occurred) then record low temperature (year occurred).

Climate Prediction Center Outlooks

6 to 10 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Period
Temperature     Precipitation

May
Temperature     Precipitation

April-May-June
Temperature      Precipitation

[Note: The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlook products are "massaged" by humans Monday through Friday, but are purely computer-generated products on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, the weekend outlooks may be less reliable than those issued Monday through Friday.]

This Week's Lake Levels
[Updated 7:30am, Friday, May 180th]

Close-up visible satellite view of our part of Texas. Since it is a visible image, it requires sunlight, so this product will only show clouds during daylight hours. This product is generated by my friend Gilbert Sebenste at Northern Illinois University, and is used with his permission.

Central Texas Tornado History-May 16-31

On May 16, 1953, a tornado developed in Leon County near Jewitt. The tornado moved from five miles southwest of Jewitt to near Centerville. It produced damage rated F2, with three injuries but no deaths. The tornado had a maximum path width of 150 yards and a path length of 12 miles.

On May 17, 1939, a tornado developed near Hewitt in McLennan County. Damaged was rated F2. There were three injuries and one death which occurred when one house was destroyed. Wind and hail caused over $1 million in damage across Central Texas on this day.

On May 17, 1989, a tornado developed 3 miles south-southwest of Jarrell in Williamson County. The tornado moved to the northeast right up IH-35 through Jarrell. Many homes were damaged or destroyed. Damage was rated F3. There were 28 injuries and one death. The maximum path width was 1,500 yards but the path length was less than five miles.

On May 18, 1902, a tornado developed near Ben Hur in Limestone County and moved through the Shiloh community to Fairfield in Freestone County. Twelve people were injured and three were killed. The deaths occurred in the Ben Hur community. Thirty homes were damaged or destroyed in Fairfield, and the county courthouse was one of the buildings damaged. The path width of this tornado is not recorded but the path length was 40 miles.

On this same day, not truly in Central Texas but not too far removed, a violent tornado struck Goliad in Goliad County, southeast of San Antonio between Victoria and Beeville. Damage was rated F4. The tornado caused 114 deaths and at least 250 injuries. The maximum path width was 250 yards, and the path length was 15 miles. It was reported that many of the deaths occurred days after the tornado event as people who were injured died of their wounds.

On May 18, 1935, a tornado developed at Caldwell in Burleson County. Fifteen homes were damaged but there were no reported injuries or deaths. Damage was rated F2. The maximum path width was 100 yards and the path length was two miles.

That same day, a tornado developed a Hearne in Robertson County. Damage was rated F2. There were eight people injured but no deaths. Eight homes were destroyed and thirty were damaged. The maximum path width was 200 yards and the path length was six miles. It is possible that the same thunderstorm that produced the Caldwell tornado also produced the Hearne tornado.

That same day, a tornado developed in Freestone County four miles east of Fairfield. Several homes were damaged or destroyed. The damage wasd rated F2. One person was injured. The maximum path width was 70 yards and the path length was fifteen miles. Numerous tornadoes occurred outside of Central Texas later the same day.

On May 18, 1966, a tornado developed near Florence in Williamson County. Damage was rated F2. There were no injuries or deaths.

On May 22, 1938, a tornado developed at the New Hope community in Comanche County. It was reported that a dozen buildings were destroyed. Damage was rated F2. There were no injuries or deaths.

On May 22, 1957, a tornado developed near Malone in Hill County. Damage was rated F3. There were four injuries but no deaths. The maximum path width was 150 yards and the path length was four miles.

On May 23, 1971, a tornado developed near Whitney in Hill County and moved toward the southeast. Damage was rated F2. There were no injuries or deaths. This tornado was followed by a second, stronger tornado.

That same day, as the first tornado near Whitney dissipated, a second tornado developed 1/2 mile east of the dissipating tornado. This multi-vortex tornado produced damage rated F2 and caused one death and 49 injuries.

On May 23, 1973, a tornado developed on the northwest side of Temple in Bell County. The maximum path width was 150 yards and the path length was three miles. More than thirty trailers at a manufacturing plant were damaged or destroyed. Several commercial buildings and many homes suffered roof damage as the tornado moved toward the southeast. Damage was rated F2. There were no injuries or deaths.

On May 24, 1946, a tornado developed in Williamson County west of Granger, and then moved to the southeast. The damage was rated F4. There was one death and one injury.

On May 25, 1907, a tornado struck near the Field Creek community in Mason and San Saba counties. Damage was rated F4. There were three deaths and ten other people were injured.

On May 25, 1976, a tornado developed two miles north of Hillsboro. Damage was rated F2. There were no casualities.

On May 25, 1976, a tornado developed at Lake Victory in Burnet County. Damage was rated F2. There were no casualities.

On May 26, 1924, a tornado developed east of Hubbard in Hill County. Damage was rated F2. There were bo casualties.

On May 26, 1976, a long-tracked tornado developed in Johnson County near Grandview, then moved southeast across the Itasca area in Hill County to near Italy in Ellis County. Damage was rated F3. There were no casualties.

That same day, a tornado developed west of the Westcliff area on Lake Belton in Bell County, and moved to the east-southeast. Damage was rated F3, and there were two deaths and seven injuries.

That same day, a tornado developed northeast of Burnet in Burnet County. Damage was rated F2, and there were no casualties.

On May 27, 1997, an outbreak of significant tornadoes occurred across Central Texas as a slow-moving supercell moved north-northeast to south-southwest along and just west of IH-35.

About 1:20pm, a tornado developed west of Lorena in McLennan County. The tornado had a path width of 75 yards, a path length of two miles, and moved very slowly to the west-southwest. There were no casualities.

Shortly before 2pm, a tornado developed one mile east of Moody in McLennan County. This tornado moved toward the south-southwest very slowly. The path width was 150 yards and the path length was almost four miles. The tornado dissipated in northern Bell County. Damage was rated F3. There were no casualities.

A short time later, a tornado developed in Bell County at Morgans Point Resort. This tornado produced F3 damage as it destroyed the Morgans Point Resort marina, including hundreds of boats. After crossing an arm of Lake Belton, the tornado heavily damage several homes north of FM-2305 before dissipating. The path width was 250 yards but the path length was less than three miles.

A short time later, a tornado developed northwest of Prairie Dell in southern Bell County. A mobile home and a barn were destroyed. Damage was rated F2, but there were no injuries or deaths. The path length was 2.4 miles and the maximum path width was 75 yards. This tornado transitioned into the Jarrell tornado (next).

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As the Prairie Dell tornado transitioned from the earlier tornado at Prairie Dell, a multi-vortex tornado developed which subsequently transitioned into a wedge tornado. This tornado did not strike the town of Jarrell directly, but leveled a subdivision (Double Creek Estates) that was just west of the town. This tornado killed 27 people, injured 12 others, and produced F5 damage over a path that was (at maximum) 650 yards wide, with a path length of over five miles. As the tornado intensified prior to reaching Double Creek Estates, it was strong enough to remove sod and topsoil from land in its path, and to remove asphalt paving as it neared Double Creek Estates. This tornado lofted several automobiles and deposited them more than 1.5 miles from where they had been before the storm. Virtually all air conditioners, oven ranges, hot water heaters, and refrigerators were carried away by the tornado.

That same day, a short time later, a tornado developed four miles north of Cedar Park in Williamson County. The tornado moved across the town of Cedar Park, crossing US-183 near an Albertson's supermarket. The tornado overturned a railroad locomotive tender that weighed at least 65,000 pounds, then ripped open the roof of the Albertson's store. The tornado continued moving south-southwest on the west side of US-183 and dissipated as it approached the Williamson-Travis county line. The tornado path length was 5.6 miles, the maximum path width was 200 yards, and damage was rated F3. There were 15 people injured but no deaths.

That same day, within a few minutes of the dissipation of the previous tornado, another tornado developed in northwest Travis County at a location described in official reports as 7 miles northwest of Four Points. This tornado had a path length of 3.6 miles and a maximum path width of 100 yards. There were no casualties. The tornado dissipated 4 miles northwest of Four Points.

That same day, a tornado developed one mile west of Lakeway in Travis County. The tornado moved toward the south-southwest and then turned toward the southwest, with a path length of 5.6 miles. The tornado dissipated three miles northwest of Beecaves. The maximum path width was 440 yards, and damage was rated F4. One person was killed and five were injured.

Shortly after midnight on May 30, 1909, a tornado developed at Zephyr in Brown County. The historical record is not entirely clear as to how wide the tornado path was, some records showing 50 yards and others 500 yards. The true path width is probably somewhere between those numbers. A total of 46 homes, six businesses, two churches and the high school were either damaged or destroyed. The damage rating was set at F4. The lumber yard caught fire and burned for several days. The path length is listed at three miles but almost certainly extended longer than that into relatively unpopulated rural countryside. Thirty-four people died and at least 70 were injured. Most of the deaths occurred in residential areas on the south and east sides of the community.

On May 30, 1971, a tornado developed in rural McCulloch County nine miles west-southwest of Brady. The tornado had a path width of 200 yards and a path length over over three miles. The damag was rathed F2, but there were no injuries or deaths.

On May 30, 1976, a tornado again developed in McCulloch County 7.5 miles northwest of Brady. This strong tornado produced F3 damage with a path width of 500 yards and a path length of 3.6 miles. There were no deaths or injuries.

On May 31, 1976, a tornado developed near Huckabay in Erath County northwest of Stephenville. The tornado has a narrow 33-yard path width but a path length of 4.4 miles. Damage was rated F2, but there were no deaths or injuries.

Each day I will provide information if significant tornadoes (that is, with damage rated F2 or greater) have occurred on that given date in the past. This history will be for Central Texas, roughly bounded on the north by Weatherford, Fort Worth and Dallas, on the east by Corsicana and Centerville, on the southeast by College Station, on the south by San Antonio, on the southwest by Junction, and on the northwest by Brownwood. Click here for a map showing counties covered.

Additional Radar Resources

When I am unable to get updates posted, please refer to issuances from the Storm Prediction Center (links below) and to the Hazardous Weather Outlook product issued by Fort Worth and other NWS offices.